新prep cr2 75题 求教！！！

annielucky

请大侠们详细讲解一下
75.    
In the year following an eight-cent increase in the federal tax on a pack of cigarettes, sales of cigarettes fell ten percent.  In contrast, in the year prior to the tax increase, sales had fallen one percent.  The volume of cigarette sales is therefore strongly related to the after-tax price of a pack of cigarettes.  
Which of the following, if true, would most strengthen the argument above?
A. During the second year after the tax increase, cigarette sales increased by a significant amount.
B. The information available to consumers on the health risks of smoking remained largely unchanged in the period before and after the tax increase.
C. Most consumers were unaware that the tax on cigarettes was going to increase.
D. During the year following the cigarette tax increase, many consumers had less income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, than they had had in the previous year.
E. During the year after the tax increase, there was a greater variety of cigarettes on the market than there had been during the previous year.

annielucky

annielucky

没有人指点迷津吗？

mashengyi

B~~~

子弹青春

By excepting one other reason that will make nagetive impact on the volume of cigarette, B is the right one.

nomailman

这是比较典型的通过“排除他因”来加强结论的例子。

B选项排除了“对吸烟危害性的宣传力度加大”导致吸烟量下降的可能性，所以加强了原结论。

annielucky

谢谢大侠指点，但是E为什么不对呢，如果今年比前年烟的种类多但是销量仍下降了，不是更能说明tax的影响力吗？

TakiZhao

种类多不等于数量多

TakiZhao

annielucky 发表于 2012-3-16 20:16
谢谢大侠指点，但是E为什么不对呢，如果今年比前年烟的种类多但是销量仍下降了，不是更能说明tax的影响力吗 ...

种类多不等于数量多

Vivian1091

helr逻辑笔记

Inthe year following an eight-cent increase in the federal tax on a pack ofcigarettes, sales of cigarettes fell ten percent.  In contrast, in the year prior to the taxincrease, sales had fallen one percent. The volume of cigarette sales is therefore strongly related to theafter-tax price of a pack of cigarettes.

Whichof the following, if true, would most strengthen the argument above?

结论是The volume of cigarette sales is thereforestrongly related to the after-tax price of a pack of cigarettes.  

前提：烟税上升，销量就掉下来

结论：税后价格和销量是有很大的联系的。（税高导致销量下降）

找选项：提到烟税和销量，或者能解释销量下降的。

(A)Duringthe second year after the tax increase, cigarette sales increased by asignificant amount.（另外一个时间里，税和销量关系发生了变化。CQ1相关性不存在，削弱选项。）

(B)Theinformation available to consumers on the health risks of smoking remainedlargely unchanged in the period before and after the tax increase.（不存在独立第三因素，对于健康的认知导致的sales下降。（加强选项。））

(C)Most consumerswere unaware that the tax on cigarettes was going to increase.（独立第三因素，没有意识到上升导致不发生购买行为（被吓到了。。）是意识上刺激导致购买减少，削弱选项。）

(D)Duringthe year following the cigarette tax increase, many consumers had less income,in inflation-adjusted dollars, than they had had in the previous year.（收入减少导致不发生购买行为。独立第三因素。削弱选项。）

(E)Duringthe year after the tax increase, there was a greater variety of cigarettes onthe market than there had been during the previous year.（种类更多，不能形成独立第三因素，也没有涉及因和果。不是削弱方向。）

答案是B。但是ACD都是削弱项。可以削弱这个推理。