【AA高频机经写作】求点评+拍砖

terry9115

原题（8月20以来出现7次）
The country of Bonaria held a major soccer event five years ago, and number of tourists increased by 25% in the last 3 years. Therefore, if the country continues to hold major sport events, tourism will increase rapidly in the country and thus bring benefits to the country's economy.

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正文；
The conclusion endorsed in the given argument is that tourism will increase rapidly in Bonaria and thus bring benefits to Bonaria’s economy if the country continues to hold major sport events. A major reason is offered in support of this argument, the author points out that after the soccer event that was held 5 years ago, the number of tourists to Bonaria has increased by 25% in the last 3 years. At first glance, the author’s argument appears to be plausible, but close scrutiny reveals that the conclusion is based on some dubious assumptions and the reasoning is biased due to the inadequacy and partiality in the nature of evidence provided to justify the conclusion.



To begin with，the author is committed a fallacy of “after this, therefore, because of this ”. The line of reasoning is that because the major soccer event was held before the increment of Bonaria’s tourists, the former caused the latter. However, this reasoning is fallacious unless other possible causal factors have been considered and ruled out. For example, perhaps the increment of tourists is resulted from a newly opened national park of Bonaria
, or a substantial reduction of cost to visit Bonaria might be the direct reason. Without thorough analysis of the real cause of the increment of tourist, it would be groundless to attribute it to the soccer event held 5 years ago.




Secondly, even if the soccer event indeed caused the increment of tourist in the past 3 years, the author still unfairly infers that the prosperity of tourism will continue to develop by hold more sport events, which might not be soccer event. The author relies on a gratuitous assumption that soccer event is representative of all sport events, in general. Since soccer, the so called “Man’s game”, is the most popular sport all around the world, it’s hasty to say that other sport events can have the same stimulating effect on the tourism of Bonaria. So unless it can be shown that the sport events which Bonaria is planed to hold in the future are also fashionable enough to attract tourists, the conclusion that the tourism will grow rapidly as a result of more held sport events in Bonaria is fairly unwarranted.



The last but not least, the author assumes that rapid grow in tourism will thus brings great benefits to the country’s economy. As we know, profit is factor of both revenue and cost, this assumption fails to take into account for cost increases and inefficiency results from the quickly growing number of tourists. To evaluate the argument, whether the revenue of the newly held sport events can weigh against the sport events’ total cost, which is not only from the construction of new stadiums but also from the sanitation problems, is must be taken into account. The trivial organizations of so much sport events will also increase the cost. In short, this assumption is highly suspect unless it could be supported with a thorough cost-benefit analysis.



To conclude, this argument is unwarranted as it stands. Accordingly, it is imprudent for the author to claim that the tourism will increase rapidly in the country and thus bring benefits to the country’s economy if Bonaria hold more sport events in the future. To make this argument logically acceptable, the author should provide more evidences to demonstrate that 1) The 25% increased proportion of the number of tourists in Bonaria is caused by the major soccer event that held 5 years ago; 2) The planed sport events can attract tourists as effective as soccer do; 3) The revenue of the newly held sport events in the future could weigh against the total cost. Only with more convincing evidence could this argument become more than a just an wishful thinking.

terry9115

自顶！

forgmat11

THANKS FOR YOUR SHARING. lz有本月的总结高频机经写作题统计?再谢

terry9115

就是8月的机经 自带统计的！

terry9115

UP

ryanrui

写得不错