GWD-1-13请教

amylixiaoli

My understanding of A:

Even if Florida can attract more retirees from any other states,the total number of retirees decline and more local retirees will move from florida to other states, then the business caters to retirees will depress.

luyanzheng

ding

sesky

我也选A.

mejor

我觉得选D也比较牵强。

小弟不是太理解the total number只的是全国的人还是F州的人，

全国的退休后去其他州人数增加，不一定F州也增加阿，原文没给推理。这个地方要求我们知道F州是度假胜地，但是根据原文告诉什么才知道什么原则，我们完全可以把F周理解成阿拉斯加那样的没什么人度假的地方啊。完全有可能，的确去其他州的人多，但是，去F州的仍然减少阿。D选项那个只是一个平均值阿。

F州去其他州人数增加，那不是削弱结论了吗？

不过相比其他选项，D算好些。

期待牛牛解答。

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-7-12 11:53:51编辑过]

无比

虽说百分率的下降不等于总人数的下降，可D选项说的是TO ANOTHER STATE,不一定是F州啊~~ 所以TO ANOTHER STATE的 TOTAL NUMBER 的增加并不能代表去F州的TOTAL NUMBER 增加阿.....

无比

就A答案来说,就算F州吸引的人数相对比别的州多,但如果整体趋势是减少的话,F州的这部分业务还是有负面影响.

A 和 D 结合才算是好答案...

tinashih8800

It's C.

 

roric

以下是引用无比在2006-7-25 15:17:00的发言：

就A答案来说,就算F州吸引的人数相对比别的州多,但如果整体趋势是减少的话,F州的这部分业务还是有负面影响.

A 和 D 结合才算是好答案...

严重同意，而且觉得如果说A有错的话，C的错是一样的

mayce

不是说A是比较错误么？

晕！

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-8-26 12:41:45编辑过]

chenlong

Q13:

In the United States, of the people who moved from one state to another when they retired, the percentage who retired to Florida has decreased by three percentage points over the past ten years. Since many local businesses in Florida cater to retirees, this decline is likely to have a noticeably negative economic effect on these businesses.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

1. Florida attracts more people who move from one state to another when they retire than does any other state.
                       
2. The number of people who move out of Florida to accept employment in other states has increased over the past ten years.
                       
3. There are far more local businesses in Florida that cater to tourists than there are local businesses that cater to retirees.
                       
4. The total number of people who retired and moved to another state for their retirement has increased significantly over the past ten years.
                       
5. The number of people who left Florida when they retired to live in another state was greater last year than it was ten years ago.

题干说：在退休后移居到另一个州的人中，移居到弗罗里达的比例在过去十年中下降了三个百分点；因此，在佛罗里达州，与退休人员直接相关的经济受到了损害。

上述推理事实上有一个gap，即：到底（与退休人员直接相关的经济的）消费者是减少了还是增加了？只有消费者减少了，经济才会受到损害；如果消费者并没有减少，那么经济就不会受到损害。我们来看选项：

1. Florida attracts more people who move from one state to another when they retire than does any other state. 完全存在一种可能，即：尽管与其他州相比，佛罗里达目前仍然吸引了最多的退休移居者，但退休移居至佛罗里达的人数正在下降，导致当地针对退休移居者的经济下滑。因此，此项事实不能削弱。
2. The number of people who move out of Florida to accept employment in other states has increased over the past ten years. 题干针对退休移居者，该选项说的是到州外去工作的人，因此是无关选项。
3. There are far more local businesses in Florida that cater to tourists than there are local businesses that cater to retirees. 题干限定于针对退休移居者的经济，该选项说到了真多旅游者的经济，因此是无关选项。
4. The total number of people who retired and moved to another state for their retirement has increased significantly over the past ten years. 此题指出基数增加，因此比例下降也未必导致实际数量下降。假设，根据题干，在全美国范围内，退休后移居到另一个州的人当中，移居到弗罗里达的比例在过去十年中从10%下降到了7%（下降了三个百分点），但（根据该选项），退休移居者总数从100万增加到200万，那么显然，在过去十年中退休移居到佛罗里达的总人数从10万增加到了14万，显然会促进当地退休移居者经济的发展。当然，这是一个例子，仅仅为了说明在本选项成立的情况下，题干中的推理并不成立。
5. The number of people who left Florida when they retired to live in another state was greater last year than it was ten years ago.该选项说，去年，离开佛罗里达的退休移居者多于十年前，意味着针对退休者经济的消费者减少，一定程度上支持了题干结论。

1. Florida attracts more people who move from one state to another when they retire than does any other state. 完全存在一种可能，即：尽管与其他州相比，佛罗里达目前仍然吸引了最多的退休移居者，但退休移居至佛罗里达的人数正在下降，导致当地针对退休移居者的经济下滑。因此，此项事实不能削弱。
2. The number of people who move out of Florida to accept employment in other states has increased over the past ten years. 题干针对退休移居者，该选项说的是到州外去工作的人，因此是无关选项。
3. There are far more local businesses in Florida that cater to tourists than there are local businesses that cater to retirees. 题干限定于针对退休移居者的经济，该选项说到了真多旅游者的经济，因此是无关选项。
4. The total number of people who retired and moved to another state for their retirement has increased significantly over the past ten years. 此题指出基数增加，因此比例下降也未必导致实际数量下降。假设，根据题干，在全美国范围内，退休后移居到另一个州的人当中，移居到弗罗里达的比例在过去十年中从10%下降到了7%（下降了三个百分点），但（根据该选项），退休移居者总数从100万增加到200万，那么显然，在过去十年中退休移居到佛罗里达的总人数从10万增加到了14万，显然会促进当地退休移居者经济的发展。当然，这是一个例子，仅仅为了说明在本选项成立的情况下，题干中的推理并不成立。
5. The number of people who left Florida when they retired to live in another state was greater last year than it was ten years ago.该选项说，去年，离开佛罗里达的退休移居者多于十年前，意味着针对退休者经济的消费者减少，一定程度上支持了题干结论。