AA2:The following appeared in a letter from a part-owner of a small retail clothing chain to her business partner: “Commercial real estate prices have been rising steadily in the Sandida Heights neighborhood for several years, while the prices in the adjacent neighborhood of Palm Grove have remained the same. It seems obvious, then, that a retail space in Sandida Heights must now be much more expensive than a similar space in Palm Grove, which was not the case several years ago. So, it appears that retail spaces in Sandida Heights are now overpriced relative to those in Palm Grove. Therefore, it would be in our financial interest to purchase a retail space in Palm Grove rather than in Sandida Heights.” 求思路!!谢谢~~~ -- by 会员 luoboG (2010/7/4 17:17:00)
fact(commercial re price rise in SH several years) fact(commercial re price remain in PG) | | | | |_______________________________________________________| | | | (contrast:SH vs PG) <1> | | conclusion1(retail spaci in SH more expensive>in PG now, not before)/assumption of conclusion 2 | |<2> | conclusion2(retail space in SH overpriced)/assumption of conclusion 3 | |<3> | conclusion3(we should by PG rather than SH)
驳斥如下: <1> SH价格稳步上涨,PG价格不变,推出SH价格远比PG贵 瞎说~~~如果SH原来暴便宜,PG暴贵呢? 比如你拿成都跟上海比,上海房价基本稳定在2.5万,成都(举个例子,或者其他山沟沟)作为新开发区房价节节攀升从8000涨到16000翻了一倍,但是你能说成都比上海房价高吗?
<2>retail space价格SH比PG高,推出SH价格overpriced 瞎说~~overprice是不合理的增长、定价过高,但是如果SH是合理增长、定价适中呢?(这里最好找一个跟成都上海不同的反例) 比如原来SH的房价由于种种历史原因被低估,比如SH是个新城市(比如海上新造的岛),政府为了吸引人去住,给出1元/平米的房价;后来海上新城轰动了大家都要去,价格也就被合理的抬上来了,你能说他overprice吗?可能还没到合理的price呢,比如海上新城应该合理在5万,但是它现在才从1元涨到了2万5。
<3>因为SH价格overprice了,所以我们为了financial interest要买PG 1)谁说PG就不overprice了?它不过remain,如果它several years一直都overprice呢?比如北京房价居高不下那么多年,其实都是泡沫~~~ 2)【思路】有什么城市,它已经overprice了,而另一个没有overprice,我们还是要买它? 很明显,上海/北京已经overprice了,但是这样的城市投资回报率高啊~~它继续涨啊! 如果SH之后仍然一路上涨,那不是一个超级好的ROI么?但是PG多年不涨,投了钱也被套牢,谁买呀
这是用XDF老师教的方法分析的,供楼上参考 |