[求助]gmat大全-3-12

Across · 发表于 2004-4-9 07:56:00

Questions 12-13 are based on the following.

Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities (sufficient, 有这个就行), they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
数学模型====>精确天气预告
~精确天气预告====>~数学模型
12. Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?

(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.

(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.

(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.

(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.

(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.

13. Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast, aside from the doubt expressed in the passage above?

(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.

(B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.

(C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.

(D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.

(E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.

两个题目答案都是B, 第二个好说, 容易理解, 这个第一个就是不能理解. 请求指教. 不晓得里面的关系是怎么弄的.看不出这个B选项是怎么反对作者观点的.

谢谢先!!!!

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-4-9 7:59:09编辑过]

tianwan · 发表于 2004-4-9 08:55:00

这一题不是考，从if A ，B不能推出if B， A；这一题是考，immune to evaluation。选项B证明can be evaluated（not immune to evaluation)。

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-4-9 8:56:18编辑过]

snow_mountain · 发表于 2004-4-9 09:04:00

以下是引用pumpkin在2004-4-9 7:56:00的发言：

Questions 12-13 are based on the following.

Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities (sufficient, 有这个就行), they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

气象学加的理论是：只有有精确的模型，天气问题就可以搞定。

反驳：天气问题一搞不好，你就可以怪模型不好。隐含认为还有其他原因导致天气预测不准。

支持气象：每次数学模型方面的重大进步都伴随着天气预测更加准。部分支持，说明模型的确有点用。

数学模型====>精确天气预告
~精确天气预告====>~数学模型
12. Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?