求助GWD一题。标题要长长长 0——————0

manna

Guidebook writer:  I have visited hotels throughout the country and have noticed that in those built before 1930 the quality of the original carpentry work is generally superior to that in hotels built afterward.  Clearly carpenters working on hotels before 1930 typically worked with more skill, care, and effort than carpenters who have worked on hotels built subsequently.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the guidebook writer’s argument?

A.    The quality of original carpentry in hotels is generally far superior to the quality of original carpentry in other structures, such as houses and stores.
B.    Hotels built since 1930 can generally accommodate more guests than those built before 1930.
C.    The materials available to carpenters working before 1930 were not significantly different in quality from the materials available to carpenters working after 1930.
D.    The better the quality of original carpentry in a building, the less likely that building is to fall into disuse and be demolished.
E.    The average length of apprenticeship for carpenters has declined significantly since 1930.

gmatziyu

求助GWD一题。标题要长长长 0——————0
Guidebook writer:  I have visited hotels throughout the country and have noticed that in those built before 1930 the quality of the original carpentry work is generally superior to that in hotels built afterward.  Clearly carpenters working on hotels before 1930 typically worked with more skill, care, and effort than carpenters who have worked on hotels built subsequently.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the guidebook writer’s argument?

A.    The quality of original carpentry in hotels is generally far superior to the quality of original carpentry in other structures, such as houses and stores.
B.    Hotels built since 1930 can generally accommodate more guests than those built before 1930.
C.    The materials available to carpenters working before 1930 were not significantly different in quality from the materials available to carpenters working after 1930.
答案是C..
题目的推理是因为考察过的1930年前的建筑物和之后的比较质量都好所以1930年前的工人技术比较好
其中一个可能性是：因为质量好的建筑才可以保存下来，质量不好的都被推倒或坏掉了。所以不一定以前的技术就比较好，
只是因为以前不好的看不见了。所以1930年前和后的比较范围是不一样的。

manna

哈，懂了！
那答案应该是D。 （（（：

cherryfane

还是不清楚为什么C不能削弱
用料质量不同，所以不一定是由于木匠水平高低~
求解！

sutchie

还是不清楚为什么C不能削弱
用料质量不同，所以不一定是由于木匠水平高低~
求解！

-- by 会员 cherryfane (2010/7/22 22:00:04)

C说的是两个时代用的材料没有什么不同吧。材料没有不同，那就是木匠的技术不同，是对原文的加强呀.

zzloveyibo

sutchie 发表于 2010-9-4 07:00
还是不清楚为什么C不能削弱用料质量不同，所以不一定是由于木匠水平高低~求解！-- by 会员 cherryfane ( ...

十分感想提醒。。。我和3L的哥们一样。，，都是看花了。。。把not看没了，，，所以CD纠结了好久好久。。。。

Bradz

这道题的逻辑是典型的SURVIVAL BIAS，有兴趣的可以去看看这个逻辑。

xyxyxy_123

Bradz 发表于 2016-10-19 23:39
这道题的逻辑是典型的SURVIVAL BIAS，有兴趣的可以去看看这个逻辑。

能解释下啥是survival bias嘛？

Bradz

xyxyxy_123 发表于 2016-11-11 00:20
能解释下啥是survival bias嘛？

大概的意思就是，在总结一个现象的时候，提供依据的样本都来自于仍然存活的人或物，而忽略了已经消失的，因此得到了一个有倾向性的结论。

一个比较典型的例子是，很多人觉得老歌比较好听，其实是因为能‘存活’到今天的老歌一定都是经典，不好听的都已经‘消失’了。

xyxyxy_123

Bradz 发表于 2016-11-11 08:06
大概的意思就是，在总结一个现象的时候，提供依据的样本都来自于仍然存活的人或物，而忽略了已经消失的， ...

谢谢~~