[阅读] 贰月至叁月阅读狗狗汇总（2.25---22:45 更新10处 共47篇 by148）

sabrinazhang

大荣，你提的两个问题我仔细看了一下狗狗，非常好~~尤其是后面那个数据中心的问题，看了“公司在IT上的消费”的V1我还认为和data centre 不大一样呢,后来又仔细看了一下~~~，非常谢谢你

Gracefangfang

Escalation Bias: Does It
Extend to Marketing?
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania
Nicole Coviello
University of Auckland
Barbara Safranek
S.G. Warburg and Co.
Escalation bias implies that managers favor reinvestments
in projects that are doing poorly over those doing well. We
tested this implication in a marketing context by conducting
experiments on advertising and product-design decisions.
Each situation was varied to reflect either a long-term or a
short-term decision. Besides these four conditions, we conducted
three replications. We found little evidence of escalation
bias by 365 subjects in the seven experimental comparisons.
Research on sunk costs shows that decision makers often
continue to invest unwisely because of commitments to prior
investments (e.g., Arkes and Blumer 1985). Escalation
research, starting with Staw (1976), yields evidence consistent
with research on the sunk-cost fallacy. In addition,
escalation research has concluded that committed managers
are likely to reinvest more in a project when they receive
information that the project is doing poorly than if told it is
doing well. This has been called "escalation bias." This bias
of "throwing good money after bad" has intuitive appeal.
Should marketing managers be concerned about escalation
bias? Common sense would say "yes." We examined
whether escalation bias is likely to lead to poor marketing
Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science
Volume 21, Number 3, pages 247-253.
Copyright 9 1993 by Academy of Marketing Science.
All rights of reproduction in any form reserved.
ISSN 0092-0703.
decisions. We first provide a brief review of the literature.
This is followed by a series of experiments to test whether
escalation bias occurs in marketing decision making. Our
hypothesis was that escalation bias would occur for marketing
decisions.
BRIEF EVALUATION OF PRIOR RESEARCH
When people make a decision, they often develop a commitment
to it. This seems especially likely for people in
organizations. For example, Fox and Staw (1979) showed
that "trapped administrators" showed a higher level of commitment
to a previous course of action than "nontrapped
administrators." If decisions turn out poorly, the "escalation
of commitment" hypothesis suggests that they may invest
further so as to make the decision turn out well. Conlon and
Parks (1987) called this retrospective rationality. In simple
terms, decision makers are often unwilling to take a loss.
Staw (1981, p. 577) commented that:
Because it is often possible for persons who have
suffered a setback to recoup their losses through an
even greater commitment of resources to this same
course of action, a cycle of escalating commitment
can be produced.
Staw and Ross (1987a) and Garland (1990) summarized a
variety of reasons for the existence of escalation bias. For
example, managers may be affected by partial reinforcement
and have difficulty accepting information that rewards
have disappeared. They might also distort negative information
through perceptual defense mechanisms. Organization-
JAMS 247 SUMMER, 1993

狗狗的背景材料，英文版分享下

Gracefangfang

StarChild Question of the Month for October 2001

Question:

Where did the Moon come from?



Answer:

Any theory which explains the existence of the Moon must naturally explain the following facts:

The Moon's low density (3.3 g/cc) shows that it does not have a substantial iron core like the Earth does.
Moon rocks contain few volatile substances (e.g. water), which implies extra baking of the lunar surface relative to that of Earth.
The relative abundance of oxygen isotopes on Earth and on the Moon are identical, which suggests that the Earth and Moon formed at the same distance from the Sun.
Various theories had been proposed for the formation of the Moon. Below these theories are listed along with the reasons they have since been discounted.

The Fission Theory: This theory proposes that the Moon was once part of the Earth and somehow separated from the Earth early in the history of the solar system. The present Pacific Ocean basin is the most popular site for the part of the Earth from which the Moon came. This theory was thought possible since the Moon's composition resembles that of the Earth's mantle and a rapidly spinning Earth could have cast off the Moon from its outer layers. However, the present-day Earth-Moon system should contain "fossil evidence" of this rapid spin and it does not. Also, this hypothesis does not have a natural explanation for the extra baking the lunar material has received.
The Capture Theory: This theory proposes that the Moon was formed somewhere else in the solar system, and was later captured by the gravitational field of the Earth. The Moon's different chemical composition could be explained if it formed elsewhere in the solar system, however, capture into the Moon's present orbit is very improbable. Something would have to slow it down by just the right amount at just the right time, and scientists are reluctant to believe in such "fine tuning". Also, this hypothesis does not have a natural explanation for the extra baking the lunar material has received.
The Condensation Theory: This theory proposes that the Moon and the Earth condensed individually from the nebula that formed the solar system, with the Moon formed in orbit around the Earth. However, if the Moon formed in the vicinity of the Earth it should have nearly the same composition. Specifically, it should possess a significant iron core, and it does not. Also, this hypothesis does not have a natural explanation for the extra baking the lunar material has received.
There is one theory which remains to be discussed, and it is widely accepted today.

The Giant Impactor Theory (sometimes called The Ejected Ring Theory): This theory proposes that a planetesimal (or small planet) the size of Mars struck the Earth just after the formation of the solar system, ejecting large volumes of heated material from the outer layers of both objects. A disk of orbiting material was formed, and this matter eventually stuck together to form the Moon in orbit around the Earth. This theory can explain why the Moon is made mostly of rock and how the rock was excessively heated. Furthermore, we see evidence in many places in the solar system that such collisions were common late in the formative stages of the solar system. This theory is discussed further below.

More About The Giant Impactor Theory

In the mid-1970s, scientists proposed the giant impact scenario for the formation of the Moon. The idea was that an off-center impact of a roughly Mars-sized body with a young Earth could provide Earth with its fast initial spin, and eject enough debris into orbit to form the Moon. If the ejected material came primarily from the mantles of the Earth and the impactor, the lack of a sizeable lunar core was easily understood, and the energy of the impact could account for the extra heating of lunar material required by analysis of lunar rock samples obtained by the Apollo astronauts.

For nearly a decade, the giant impact theory was not believed by most scientists. However, in 1984, a conference devoted to lunar origin prompted a critical comparison of the existing theories. The giant impact theory emerged from this conference with nearly consensus support by scientists, enhanced by new models of planet formation that suggested large impacts were actually quite common events in the late stages of terrestrial planet formation.

sjmdlyc

明天一战~受死去！

sabrinazhang

1 有关投资倾向的实验比较
2 月球理论

是否是这两个的背景知识？？

大荣

sabrinazhang, “political leader”和“女政治家”应该属于同一文。都提到黑人女政治家，还有同一题问“spokenman”的作用。

sabrinazhang

恩对没错~~

sing1985

楼主这头像相当有感觉

htfly815

xiexie e

同济的卡卡

楼主辛苦了，我开始使用RC JJ了，2月24日考