[求助]feifei-97：有关充要条件的疑问。非常困惑……

jinqijia

97. A scientific theory is a good theory if it satisfies two requirements: it must accurately describe a large class of observations in terms of a model that is simple enough to contain only a few elements, and it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations. For example, Aristotle’s cosmological theory, which claimed that everything was made out of four elements---earth, air, fire, and water---satisfied the first requirement, but it did not make any definite predictions. Thus, Aristotle’s cosmological theory was not a good theory.
            

 

If all the statements in the passage are true, each of the following must also be true EXCEPT:

 

A.       Prediction about the results of future observations must be made by any good scientific theory

B.        Observation of physical phenomena was not a major concern in Aristotle’s cosmological theory.

C.        For elements can be the basis of a scientific model that is simple enough to meet the simplicity criterion of a good theory.

D.       A scientific model that contains many elements is not a good theory.

E.        Aristotle’s cosmological theory described a large class of observations in terms of only four elements.

 

After analysis , we can find that the reasoning in this argument is that:

1>      it must accurately describe a large class of observations in terms of a model that is simple enough to contain only a few elements  and  2> it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations.ßà A scientific theory is a good theory

 

So , we can find all of choices except B satisfied with the original meaning.

 

B is not mentioned in this argument , so we can conclude whether B is also true.

So B is the best answer.

根据原题第一句话：如果科学理论是个好理论，那它满足两个条件：其中第二条：it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations。对选项A有疑问：1.题目说是definite predictions，A是 predictions，这能等同吗？2.也是最疑惑的，满足两个要求是好理论，也就是说好理论能够有明确的推断。A中说推断来自好理论？这个推理过程有问题吧。Prediction about the results of future observations must be made by any good scientific theory 这句话该怎么理解？

dujuan034

同问。

jinqijia

知道的大虾帮忙解释下。

jinqijia

怎么没人帮忙？up

LittleMike

先顶再看~

LittleMike

我觉得这个也是咱们英语非母语的原因了吧，如果加个definite在前面肯定就不会选A了呵呵，至于有和没有definite是否等同的问题我其实也和你同样抱怀疑观点，这个地方确实有质疑

或者也可以这么理解？如果要把prediction分成两种一种是definite一种不definite，那不definite的还叫prediction么？比如我说明天既有可能下雨也可能不下雨，这还叫预测么？如果从这个角度来理解，prediction一定就是definite的，所以可以视为等同

再有觉得A有问题也可能是因为我们常识的影响，我们觉得破理论也能做出预测，只不过一般不准罢了，我的建议是做逻辑题的时候紧盯着题目给的信息，其他常识就暂时忘掉，死跟着题目给的逻辑，题目说是什么，就是什么，为了得分唉唉唉……那么，如果要忘记常识只看题的话，题目中说了，亚里士多德的理论没有预测，所以不是好理论，那么没有预测的一定不是好理论，所以只有好理论才有可能有预测，那么就能推出预测都是来自好理论的（再次强调，忘记常识）

其实说这么多我感觉简直太啰嗦了，在考场上我觉得看到B基本上一定会选B，因为A虽然有质疑，但是B相对来说更明显的不对。anyway，希望你同意我的观点~

jinqijia

先谢ls。definite不是问题的关键。 a good theory -〉it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations。可是A中说什么？Prediction about the results of future observations must be made by any good scientific theory ，这个推理好像是错误的吧？

LittleMike

copy我之前发的：

那么，如果要忘记常识只看题的话，题目中说了，亚里士多德的理论没有预测，所以不是好理论，那么没有预测的一定不是好理论，所以只有好理论才有可能有预测，那么就能推出预测都是来自好理论的

jinqijia

恩。脑筋有点打结了。现在好了。看来还是自己阅读能力的问题。谢谢！

LittleMike

我也是，经常会莫名其妙打结的，呵呵：）