【求助】7月逻辑机经第9题

joewoo198256

以下是引用wittyhunter在2009/7/29 15:41:00的发言：

首先分析一下原题，（assumption：JJ作者在复述jj时是100%正确的）：说 Lead 是存在于gasoline emmission 中而通常会堆积在railroad旁的土. 从一些1970~1980 间有大车流量的路上能发现到旁边的土有Lead堆积．所以当科学家发现某段路段的土旁有Lead 堆积 mostly likely 这路段在1980前有大量车流. 问这个statement 犯了什么问题

文中说了关于1970~1980 间公路上的两个事件，A:有大车流量；B：路旁土中有lead堆积。如果原题明确说明，A是B的充分原因的话，那作者的错误就是因果倒置了，楼主的答案D应该没问题。但是如果只用“能发现”来连接A，B，说明A，B只是同时发生的两件事，作者犯得错误就是混淆因果，具体文献如下：

Confusing Cause and Effect is a fallacy that has the following general form:

1. A and B regularly occur together.
2. Therefore A is the cause of B.

This fallacy is committed when a person assumes that one event must cause another just because the events occur together. More formally, this fallacy involves drawing the conclusion that A is the cause of B simply because A and B are in regular conjunction (and there is not a common cause that is actually the cause of A and B). The mistake being made is that the causal conclusion is being drawn without adequate justification.

不知分析的对不对，还请大家多讨论。总之，我认为答案应该跟因果有关，同学们还是要到考场上见题后自己分析。

3. Therefore A is the cause of B.

This fallacy is committed when a person assumes that one event must cause another just because the events occur together. More formally, this fallacy involves drawing the conclusion that A is the cause of B simply because A and B are in regular conjunction (and there is not a common cause that is actually the cause of A and B). The mistake being made is that the causal conclusion is being drawn without adequate justification.

不知分析的对不对，还请大家多讨论。总之，我认为答案应该跟因果有关，同学们还是要到考场上见题后自己分析。

5. Therefore A is the cause of B.

This fallacy is committed when a person assumes that one event must cause another just because the events occur together. More formally, this fallacy involves drawing the conclusion that A is the cause of B simply because A and B are in regular conjunction (and there is not a common cause that is actually the cause of A and B). The mistake being made is that the causal conclusion is being drawn without adequate justification.

不知分析的对不对，还请大家多讨论。总之，我认为答案应该跟因果有关，同学们还是要到考场上见题后自己分析。

你分析的很在理，可以到本月机经的讨论帖中去看看。