一道老管的逻辑，又想不通了，请高人加好人指点

carolcai

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart.  When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle.  A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used.  It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little.  Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

 

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?

 

1. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
2. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
3. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
4. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
5. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

答案是E,以前好像有人问过，但现在又想不通了，有好人能不能帮忙分析下？多谢多谢先

ADream1234

vaccine的局限性在于如果ROUTINELY用太贵，outbreak发生后用又滞后才起作用，所以不用它。但是E表明OUTBREAK是可以预见的，就发生在一定的CLIMATIC CONDITIONS之后，那么VACCINE就可以提前使用从而避免它的滞后性。

carolcai

哦，多谢

好像是题目没看透。certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed,是被动，我把顺序弄倒了