AA104，求拍，各位大牛拍一下吧

shawn0311

第一次写作文，还有不久就快考试了，请各位大牛给拍一下吧，在30分钟内没写完，时间结束后多写了3个单词

AA 104题目

The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of the Frostbite National Bank.

We should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors. Frostbite is known for its cold winters, and cold weather can mean slow ice cream sales. For example, even though Frostbite is a town of 10,000 people, it has only one ice cream spot - the Frigid Cow. Despite the lack of competition, the Frigid Cow's net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter.~
小弟的作文

In the argument, the author suggests that the loan department should not approve the business loan application of the local group. In order to substantiate the suggestion, the author employs several lines of reasoning. In the first place, the author points out that the Frostbite is known for its cold winters and cold weather can mean slow ice cream sales. What's more, an additional reason in support of the suggestion is that the only ice cream spot the Frigid Cow's net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter. Nonetheless, the argument is not logically perfect. Though the argument appears to be somehow plausible at the first glance, closer examinations reveal that it suffers from several serious logic flaws.

 

In the first place, the argument is a classic example of a fallacy called causal oversimplification. The author unfairly assumes that the cold winters in Frostbite lead to the fact of slow ice cream sales merely because the cold weather may play a role to get the slow sales. However, the coincidence does not establish any specific causal relationship between these events. In order to substantiate the causal relationship, the author should take into consideration all other factors that may attribute to the result, and then exclude them. For example, it is highly possible that the slow ice cream sales are caused by the terrible advertising made by the local ice cream spot. What's more, the slow ice cream sales perhaps result in the fact that the local ice cream spot makes unpalatable ice cream that people are reluctant to buy it. Nevertheless, as it stands, the author fails to consider these factors and just arrives at the problematic conclusion.

 

In the second place, even if the author argues that the problem mentioned above can be negligible, the conclusion within the argument depends on the questionable assumption that the facts drawn from the Frigid Cow are applicable to the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors. The reasoning process works only when the two companies are comparable. However, the differences between the two companies may significantly outweigh the similarities, therefore making the comparison highly suspect. For example, the Frigid Cow may be a small ice cream spot and does not have much more experience to operate the local market. However, the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors may be an international company. It has much more information and can control it costs about the production of ice cream. Therefore, the Kool Kone can spend much more money on the market and then get higher sales. The author fails to consider these factors and they may present insurmountable obstacles for the author to get the conclusion.

 

Finally, the figures that the author cites to support the conclusion are not persuasive. In fact, lacking information about comparison, we can not assess the reliability of the figures. For example, the sales of Frigid Cow in last year may be the highest in the past few years. Thus, 10 percent declination is reasonable.

 

In conclusion, the argument is not logically sound as it stands. In fact, the reasoning process in the argument suffers from many logic flaws that can not be ignored. In order to make it logically acceptable, the author should take into account all other factors. In addition, the author should provide more information to valide the recommendation.

请各位XDJM给我拍拍吧，提提建议，谢谢啦！