GWD-30-Q32 ，海龟题，jj里有

pharmacystar

GWD-30-Q32
                            

A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker’s Beach, the world’s sole nesting ground for Merrick sea turtles, and prevented nearly all the eggs laid that year from hatching.  Yet the number of adult female Merricks returning to lay their eggs at Baker’s Beach has actually increased somewhat since five years ago.  Clearly, environmentalists’ prediction that the world’s Merrick population would decline as a result of the spill has proven unfounded.

5年前的一次化学物质泄漏导致海滩上所有的海龟蛋都完蛋了
    

但是近5年内 回海滩生蛋的母海龟数量却逐年增加了
    

很明显 conclusion  生态学家预言的泄漏事故导致的海龟数量减少是没有依据的
    

 

问削弱结论的假设
    

 

B  因为母海龟在10岁的时候才可以生蛋
    

5年前那一代母海龟减少效应只有到了10年以后才可以显现出来，也就是第10年的时候生蛋的母海龟数量才能够减少
        

后发效应
        

现在只是第5年所以看不出来
        

 

这里是年代的不充分性
        

 

这里容易混淆的答案是D  一种吃海龟蛋的海鸟数量减少了，貌似正确，但其实和文中逻辑关系无关，因为这种减少不是chemical spill所致的
        

所以不能够代表近年的趋势，而且提干是由生蛋的母海龟数量增加为论据的，而不是以海龟蛋的增加或者减少为论据的
        

 

更进一步证实了做逻辑必须理解逻辑含义，推理过程
        

 

nn们同意我的观点吗？这道题很绕啊感觉

Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the argument offered in refutation of the environmentalists’ prediction?

1. The chemical spill five years ago occurred at a time when there were neither Merrick sea turtles nor Merrick sea turtle eggs on Baker’s Beach.

2. Female Merrick sea turtles begin returning to Baker’s Beach to lay their eggs when they are ten years old.

3. Under normal conditions, only a small proportion of hatchling female Merrick sea turtles survive in the ocean until adulthood and return to lay their eggs at Baker’s Beach.

4. Environmental pressures unrelated to the chemical spill have caused a significant decline in the population of one of the several species of sea birds that prey on Merrick sea turtle eggs.

5. After the chemical spill, an environmental group rejected a proposal to increase the Merrick sea turtle population by transferring eggs from Baker’s Beach to nearby beaches that had not been affected by the spill.

 

pharmacystar

逻辑链是

母海龟出生  母海龟生蛋  中间经历10年

5年前出生的母海龟减少

环境学家以生蛋的母海龟的数量来反映有没有影响

 

而且d答案里，是别的原因，就是说如果海鸟数量减少了

本来海龟数量就会增加

那么在这个已经增加的基础上，到底那次泄漏有作用吗？

d是无关答案

leglas117

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