AA110 求拍，考试在即，先谢过大家了！

棕榈猫

110. The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of the Frostbite National Bank.

“We should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors. Frostbite is known for its cold winters, and cold weather can mean slow ice cream sales. For example, even though Frostbite is a town of 10,000 people, it has only one ice cream spot — the Frigid Cow. Despite the lack of competition, the Frigid Cow’s net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter.”

I

n this argument, the arguer concludes that the frostbite national bank should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for the kool kone chain of ice cream parlors. To support this conclusion, the arguer points out that cold weather, for which frostbite is known, will hamper the sale of ice cream. In addition, the arguer reasons that since the only ice cream spot-----the frigid cow in frostbite, which is a town of 10,000 people, suffered a 10 percent decrease in sales, the new franchise will do on better than that. A careful examine of the argument will reveal how groundless it is.

 

In the first place, the author falsely depends on gratuitous assumption that cold weather is responsible for the slow sales of ice cream. However, no evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption. The fact that cold weather coincides with slow sales does not necessarily prove that the latter event is caused by the former. For example, if frostbite is a place of great interest, it is more likely that its cold winter brings a great number of tourists who love ice cream. Also, there may be other things such as bad service provided by the spot which cause the slow sales. Therefore, this argument is unwarranted without ruling out such possibility.

 

In the second place, the argument rests on the assumption that the new franchise outlet is the analogous to Frigid Cow in all respects. The assumption is weak. Since although there isn’t any     information given about the two spots besides they both sell ice cream. For example, the new outlet may service more kinds of ice cream than frigid cow do. Thus, it is likely much easier for the former to attract customers.

 

Furthermore, the statistics the author provides is insufficient to support the conclusion drawn from it. The decrease of sales in one year is not necessarily a good indicator of future trends, unless it can be shown that last year is representative of all years. It is possible that last year the town suffered a short-term recession and thus the inhabitants’ disposable income dropped temporarily. Also the statistic of last winter is too limited to be representative since information about the other there seasons is given in the argument.

 

in conclusion, the arguer fails to substantiate his claim that the frostbite national bank should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for the kool kone chain of ice cream parlors. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have provide evidence that the cold weather, for which frostbite is known, will hamper the sale of ice cream. To better evaluate the argument, we need more information about sales of recent years. Information about the new and Frigid Cow is also needed.

 还有20天就要考了，作文才刚开始看。由于以前考试作文成绩都很差，所以对写作有些许抗拒。好不容易捣鼓出一篇，用了最常用的模版。请大家多多指点，我真的非常非常担心啊……先谢过了

Whitney

In
this argument, the arguer (loan department) concludes that the frostbite national bank
should not approve the business loan application of the local group
that wants to open a franchise outlet for the kool kone chain of ice
cream parlors. To support this conclusion, the arguer (here is fine) points out (emphasizes) that
cold weather, for which frostbite is known, will hamper the sale of ice
cream. In addition, the arguer reasons that since the only (existing) ice cream
spot -----the frigid cow (just cut) in frostbite (Frostbite), which is a town of 10,000 people,
suffered a 10 percent decrease in sales (last winter), the new franchise will do on
better than that.  (At the first glance, the loan department's explanation is very persuasive, however, ) a careful examine (examination) of the argument will reveal how
groundless it is (the argument is problematic for several critical flaws as discussed below.)

 

In
the first place, the loan department's memorium (try to use different words such as proposal, argument, conclusion, etc.) falsely (wordy because gratuitous assumption is mentioned) depends on gratuitous assumption
that cold weather is responsible for the slow sales of ice cream.
However, no evidence is stated in the argument to support this
assumption. The fact that cold weather coincides with slow sales does
not necessarily prove that the latter event is caused by the former.
For example, if frostbite is a place of great interest, it is more
likely that its cold winter brings a great number of tourists who love
ice cream. Also, there may be other things such as bad service provided
by the spot which cause the slow sales. Therefore, this argument is
unwarranted without ruling out such possibility. {This part is not good. You fail to recoginize that the sale of ice cream is largely determined by how hot the summer is not by how cold the winter is. } {You can add extra such as "although there are only 10,000 people lived in town, it is unjustified to assume that there are 10,000 potential customes. For example, White mountain national park (or many popular summer vacation places) usually have population several folds higher in summer than in winter. It is possible that same thing happens in Frostbit. Even if ...,  the ratio of  1 ice cream spot per 10,000 people could be not high at all. ... You don't have to talk everything, go depth by giving an example}

 
In the second place, the argument rests on the assumption that the new franchise outlet is the analogous to Frigid Cow in all respects. {This point is nice}  The assumption is weak. Since although there isn’t any  information
given about the two spots besides they both sell ice cream. For
example, ( comapred to the existing ice cream spot,) the new (franchise) outlet may service more kinds of ice cream than frigid
cow do.( provide ice creams with better quality and more flavors, while at low price. Thus, it is likely much easier for the former to attract
customers.

 

Furthermore,
the statistics (information) the author provides is insufficient to support the
conclusion drawn from it. The decrease of sales in one year is not
necessarily a good indicator of future trends, unless it can be shown
that last year is representative of all years. It is possible that last
year the town suffered a short-term recession and thus the inhabitants’
disposable income dropped temporarily. Also the statistic of last
winter is too limited to be representative since information about the
other there seasons is given in the argument. {This part is not good. Try to get depth, not just a few possibilities. For example, "Although the net revenues of existing ice cream shop fell by 10 percent last winter when compared to its own record, it is impossible to deterimene the actual profit level of that ice cream shop.  It is quite possible that even after its profit level drops, the exist ice cream shop still has a much higher profit margin than the average of all other small business in town. This could be the possibel reason for the opening of the new ice cream franchise."  Blabla}

 

in
conclusion, the arguer fails to substantiate his claim that the
frostbite national bank should not approve the business loan
application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet
for the kool kone chain of ice cream parlors. To strengthen the
argument, the arguer would have provide evidence that the cold weather,
for which frostbite is known, will hamper the sale of ice cream. To
better evaluate the argument, we need more (additional) information about sales of
recent years. Information about the new and Frigid Cow is also need. (which I just address above.)

lisy

高手！

peterpang3

You can also mention that only winter sale was mentioned in the argument, and summer sale might be very good, which can compensate the loss during winter time.