美国经济系academic job market供需粗浅分析(ZT)

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美国经济系academic job market供需粗浅分析(ZT)



看了很多讨论job market 的帖子, 多是个人感受, 主观成分较多, 本文发扬economics研
究的精神, 大胆假设, 小心求证, 做了个美国academic job market供需粗浅分析, 算是
迈出定量分析的第一步吧. 本文数据有很多估计和假设的地方, 如果并不贴近现实或需加
以补充的, 大家尽可发表意见, 只为了大家对job market能有更客观的认识.

本文主要针对美国的tenure track junior assistant professor的市场做出分析, 主要
面向广大在读phd们, 我想这块市场也是大家普遍最关心的.


I. 先看供给:

1) New economics PhD. students in U.S.: 903
这里的样本是2002年在美国拿到学位的博士人数, 数据来自于John Cawley. A GUIDE (
AND ADVICE) FOR ECONOMISTS ON THE U. S. JUNIOR ACADEMIC JOB MARKET, available
on JOE website

2) New economics PhD. in Canada: 50
加拿大的博士肯定会到美国来找工作, 且有一定竞争力, 不过只考虑 top 5, 假设10个每
所, 共10*5=50

3) New economics PhD. in UK, , 10*3=30
英国名校的博士在美国市场也有一定竞争力, 不过只考虑Cambridge, Oxford and LSE,
假设10个每所, 共10*3=30

4) assistant professors who want to change jobs: 200
已在美国学校当上assistant professor,不过才一两年,还没到评tenure的时候, 不过由
于种种原因想跳槽,准确数字很难估计, 根据我们学校情况, 大概每5-10年出现一个这种
情况, 就算10 年吧, 全美上usnews.com排名的大概有2000所, 所以来自这个方向的供给
2000/10=200

5) Tenure rejected: 50
没评上tenure, 不得不上市场的, 准确数字很难估计, 保守估计50

6) Others: like econometrics position could hire statistics PhD. Health
economics position could hire public health PhD. 数量多少无从考证, 不过应该不
会很多, 假设100.

Therefore, Junior assistant professor total supply is roughly: 1333

II. 再看需求:
需求分析分两个层次, research schools and teaching schools,
样本只考虑在美国的tenure track的assistant professor, 不包括不在美国或 非tenure
track或senior faculty.

A. Market for U.S. Research schools (schools granting PhD).
1) Phd schools 大概 100
2) 不是每个都要人, 假设一半要人, 50所
3) 有opening的每所一般要一个, 有的2个或更多, 假设每所1.5个,
4) 在这些需求中, 有些只要senior faculty, 保守估计每个opening 有2/3可能行要
assistant professor

所以, 来自于美国research schools tenure track position 的需求是:
(100*0.5)*1.5*(2/3) =50.

B. Market for U.S. teaching schools: schools without ph.d. Programs

1) New academic jobs posted on JOE between October and December in 2002: 964
数据来自于John Cawley. A GUIDE (AND ADVICE) FOR ECONOMISTS ON THE U. S. JUNIOR
ACADEMIC JOB MARKET, available on JOE website
2) 这个数据包括了美国以外的academic jobs, 假设在美国的academic jobs是其中的2/3
3) 这个数据也包括了非tenure track 的, 假设Tenure track占其中2/3
4) 这个数据也包括了research schools positions, 要减去50

所以, 来自于美国teaching schools tenure track position 的需求是:
964*(2/3)*(2/3)-50=383

III. 需求Vs供给

A. Market for U.S. Research schools

Demand Vs Supply = 50 : 1333

B. Market for U.S. teaching schools

Demand Vs Supply= 383 : (1333-50) = 383 : 1283

VI. 结论: 应该没有人说U.S. academic job market容易吧.

ineedyou1981

是非常难，基本上前10名的毕业生就可以把前50的opening都包了。另外，女生比较占优势。如果是黑人，那就再好不过了

dajie

刚申请了经济学博士。。。。。。不知道5年后的供需状况是否会改变

ProfCPA

The senario for Ph.D students in business school is quite different from this.

hncsxj

It is tough, but this so-called analysis is rubbish.

Say,

1) New economics PhD. in Canada: 50
加拿大的博士肯定会到美国来找工作, 且有一定竞争力, 不过只考虑 top 5, 假设10个每
所, 共10*5=50

Argue: US Ph.Ds also go to Canada for job.Further, Top 5 in Canada? Only Top 4 are famous in the world: UoT, UBC, WestOntaria and Queen's. Who is the fifth? And, every year, PhDs graduate from UBC, Queens or even UoT are much less than 10 per school!

This analysis has much more unsound logics, and it is not worth to argue one by one.

But it is really tough to find a tenure track job in US for econ Ph.D, even tougher than the analysis said.

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-2-16 10:21:44编辑过]

jingege

this is trash, man,

many economics Phd can get a job in industry.