一道OG-assumption题目

小目标750

In Wareland last year, 16 percent of licensed drivers under 21 and 11 percent of drivers ages 21-24 were in serious

accidents. By contrast, only 3 percent of licensed drivers 65 and older were involved in serious accidents. These figures clearly show that the greater experience and developed habits of caution possessed by drivers in the 65-and-older group make them far safer behind the wheel than the younger drivers are.

Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?

(A) Drivers 65 and older do not, on average, drive very many fewer miles per year than drivers 24 and younger.

(B) Drivers 65 and older do not constitute a significantly larger percentage of licensed drivers in Wareland than drivers ages 18-24 do.

(C) Drivers 65 and older are less likely than are drivers 24 and younger to drive during weather conditions that greatly increase the risk of accidents.

(D) The difference between the accident rate of drivers under 21 and of those ages 21-24 is attributable to the greater driving experience of those in the older group.

(E) There is no age bracket for which the accident rate is lower than it is for licensed drivers 65 and older.

答案是A。

题目类型：assumption ；

结论： the greater experience and developed habits of caution导致65岁以上老人要比年轻司机开车安全 ；  

选项A 通过排除他因支持结论。

我的问题是： 选项C为什么错？

65岁以上老人恶劣天气相较于年轻司机较小可能去开车 是否和“the greater experience and developed habits of caution”有关呢？   我是觉得支持了结论

希望有小伙伴可以指点一下~  这种选项类型怎么排除~  感谢！

Siki吴

文章是通过数据推出结论，但是逻辑链不完整，A刚好补充了这个逻辑链。但是C是从其他方面support的，并不是文章推出结论depend on的assumption。个人见解。

viivici

个人想法:

因为这是assumption题，找的是结论缺失的必要条件。

c应该是增强，而不是结论成立的必要条件（assumption）。就算c成立，这个结论也不一定是正确的。（可以通过取反验证）

相反，如果没有a的话，文中结论必然不成立。

小目标750

viivici 发表于 2019-7-3 19:34
个人想法:

因为这是assumption题，找的是结论缺失的必要条件。

说的对！

选项C可以 support 结论， 但不是结论成立的必要条件。

感谢！

AlanHeeee

不对吧
这么做
B,D,E无关，杀
C是削弱，杀。(削弱了原结论——60+的司机开车更安全)
选A

Bensontuo

不只是考假設而已, 這題在考必要假設, 就是如果原文邏輯為真, 那什麼必定要為真。

原文用兩個群組發生事情的機率對照另外一個群組的發生事情的機率, 而用小的機率來辯證發生事情的機率較小的那個群組必定擁有某一特質。意思就是, 這某一特質為機率大小的核心因素。

可是, 如果在計算這個特質時, 至少有一個變數為不同, 那這個特質的支持性及被減弱, 換句話說, 如果此特質為真, 即沒有變數為不同。

選項Ｃ 取非後, " Not less likely " 可以等於 more likely 或是 exactly likely. 如果是 more likely, 反而加強原文邏輯, 沒有達到取非之後推翻原文邏輯的功用, 而如果是exactly likely, 其實也只是保證了” 其中一個可能的變數的不變, 而不是說, 這個變數會變異的可能性為存在。所以照樣沒有推翻

撑胆大饿胆小

考题实际在问：哪个选项能让原文论点更有说服力？

原文的论点是：老人比年轻人开车事故率低。
对比两个事物的话，论点成立的基础是：两个比较对象的变量一致，比如开车里程一样，环境一样，频率一样等等才更有说服力。

所以A选项提出控制变量，所以正确。但是A选项很迷惑人，"many fewer" 我读到many 自动跳过了fewer.....导致第一次我也选错了