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应该是boater那题相关的文献 《观光景点拥挤研究 》
His study incorporates time into an analysis of crowding and carrying capacity to investigate how change affects visitor evaluations and experiences. The analysis employed three cross-sectional surveys of boaters to the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore in Wisconsin over a 22-year period, beginning in 1975 and each administered approximately 10 years apart.
This framework assumed that perceived crowding is an expression of individual judgment and socially shared norms about “appropriate” density at a given site and at a given time. How crowded people feel depends, in part, on the expectations and preferences they bring to a recreation site. People may feel more crowded if they expect a low number of encounters but see more people than they expected. Moreover, based on these evaluative criteria, the individual may not feel crowded or evaluate the experience negatively until visitor encounters reach some threshold number.
This normative approach, however, is problematic in cross-sectional crowding frameworks because visitors may change over time. Time related issues of change were recognized in the early 1970s during the planning stages of early carrying capacity studies (Shelby & Heberlein, 1986). At the Grand Canyon, there were concerns that the study of current visitors could not truly assess carrying capacity because past visitors, who might be more sensitive, would have been displaced. It is possible that they could have left the Canyon because use levels had increased from 500 visitors a year in the mid 1960s to over 16,000 in 1972. The “last settler syndrome” (Nielson & Endo, 1977) or “uninitiated newcomer” phenomenon (West, 1981) suggests that some new comers to an area may have weakly defined normative expectations and preferences about an area (Roggenbuck, Williams, Bange, & Dean, 1991) and therefore will define current conditions as normal. Thus, aggregate measures of norms may change because of shifts in visitor composition over time.
Norms may also change independently of visitor composition. Cole and Stewart (2002) used a diary sampling method among Grand Canyon backpackers, and found substantial variation in individual responses to normative evaluations when measured at different backcountry zones and at different times during their trip. The product shift phenomenon suggests that people can also change their minds about standards of appropriate use given changing personal and social contexts (Shelby et al, 1988; Shindler &Shelby, 1995). The norms that they hold may change over time, and hence a relationship between encounters and perceived crowding that holds at one point in time may not hold at a second point. So, collective evaluations may also change, even while visitor characteristics remain roughly the same over time. Even though use level may be increasing, aggregate crowding levels may shift depending on a variety of broad social factors that may change the way people define appropriate uses of a recreation site. The only way to observe the potential for change, either in visitor composition or in the normative standards of visitors, is to measure social conditions and visitor evaluations at a single site over time
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发表于 2019-1-17 15:43:40
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