[讨论]CR最近JJ的变体GWD7－37

hirko

[讨论]CR最近JJ的变体GWD7－37

GWD7－37

Escalating worldwide demand for corn has led to a sharp increase in the market price of corn, and corn prices are likely to remain high.  Corn is extensive used as feed for livestock, and because profit margins are tight in the livestock business, many farmers are expected to leave the business.  With fewer suppliers, meat prices will surely rise.  Nonetheless, observers expect an immediate long-term decrease in meat prices.

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Which of the following, if true, most helps to justify the observers’ expectation?

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1. The increase in corn prices is due more to a decline in the supply of corn than to a growth in demand for it.
   
2. Generally, farmers who are squeezed out of the livestock business send their livestock to market much earlier than they otherwise would.
   
3. Some people who ate meat regularly in the past are converting to diets that include little or no meat.
   
4. As meat prices rise, the number of livestock producers is likely to rise again.
   
5. Livestock producers who stay in the business will start using feed other than corn more extensively than they did in the past.

原题是short-term根据JJ已改成long-term，感觉D跟E都有点像，请大家帮忙讨论看看

carol1216

我选e，感觉d和玉米无关，而题目里专门提到了玉米的价格。

hirko

我开始也觉得是E，后来想想觉得D也对，好像E与肉的supply无关啊

而原文中是因为supply少了价格升高，D可以说是supply又增加了导致价格回升，但我觉得有点不妥的就是这种回升能算是“long-term”吗？

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-9-22 9:07:17编辑过]

carmenleaf

支持选E

玉米需求量下降，价格将低，导致生产动物的成本下降，更有利可图

于是大家又奔小康去了

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-9-22 9:08:51编辑过]

hirko

嗯嗯，绞尽脑汁再想想，根据long-term感觉还是E

呼，好累啊，不管了，这道题就这样了

天之角

我选D,因为原文没有提到其他谷物的价格，如果其他谷物的价格也上涨了就不能得出结论了。我觉得D更有说服力。

天之角

以下是引用carmenleaf在2005-9-22 9:08:00的发言：

支持选E

玉米需求量下降，价格将低，导致生产动物的成本下降，更有利可图

于是大家又奔小康去了

为什么玉米需求量下降？

howardwang

支持E

因为  profit(livestock ) margins are tight in the livestock business.所以，要expect an immediate long-term decrease in meat prices，则只有降低成本。否则，suppliers会因为不赚钱而退出或不进入。价格也就下不来。

而E刚好说了一种替代corn的东西，之所以替代，必然是其相对corn价格低或性价比高，随着more extensively，价格会进一步降低。进而使suppliers的成本降低，并最终达到decrease in meat prices的期望。

天之角

澄清一个问题long-term decrease是指上升后的价格，还是指以现在价格的基础之上？

hirko

最后还是支持E

题眼就在long-term上，只有成本降低，价格的长期趋势才会走低

producers的突然增加不能从根本上解释价格的long-term decrease