【OG19-CR-636题】 Evaluation题求大神解答

yueyueyue666

In the past the country of Malvernia has relied heavily on imported oil. Malvernia recently implemented a program to convert heating systems from oil to natural gas. Malvernia currently produces more natural gas each year than it uses, and oil production in Malvernian oil fields is increasing at a steady pace. If these trends in fuel production and usage continue, therefore, Malvernian reliance on foreign sources for fuel is likely to decline soon.

Which of the following would it be most useful to establish in evaluating the argument?

A. When, if ever, will production of oil in Malvernia outstrip production of natural gas?
B. Is Malvernia among the countries that rely most on imported oil?
C. What proportion of Malvernia's total energy needs is met by hydroelectric, solar, and nuclear power?
D. Is the amount of oil used each year in Malvernia for generating electricity and fuel for transportation increasing?
E. Have any existing oil^burning heating systems in Malvernia already been converted to natural gas- burning heating syste


Premise: convert heating system from oil to gas; produces more gas than it uses; oil production is increasing
Conclusion: If these trends in fuel production and usage continue, Malvernian reliance on foreign sources for fuel is likely to decline soon.OA: D

我不理解的是，原文的结论里作者已经明确了，他所说的燃料生产和使用保持趋势是他的假设。作者并没有肯定地说这些趋势一定会保持。
而正确答案评估的是事实上该趋势能不能保持。
这样的评估对作者的推理也有削弱作用吗？

以及，该假设是出现在结论中的。如果正确答案对该假设有削弱作用，herl逻辑中说的直接削弱结论不是不能反驳推理吗？还是说我的前提和结论就找错了……

想了很久都想不懂，求大神解答

蛋蛋EgEgg

我也做错了……专门返回这个题目多看了几眼……
原文：这个国家计划用自己产的gas来取代进口oil来运营heating system，当前这个国家的gas出产量不仅够用而且还会多出来，oil的话也是平稳增加。问，这个国家未来是否不需要依赖进口oil？
我一开始头脑一热直接选了E……返回来想了想，当前有没有开发出来可以用gas来运营heating system的机器，好像确实不影响这个题啊……因为以前可能没开发出来，可是现在或未来有技术水平了的话，迟早是会开发出来的。而且人家都计划这么做了，肯定是有技术信心的。
D确实是最稳的答案了。D说：用来制电还有为交通工具提供燃料的oil需求是否会增长。因为原文中只提到说用gas在heating system方面取代oil，没有说到制电和燃料。也就是说，即使该国在heating system方面用自家gas取代进口oil，如果无法用gas解决制电和燃料方面的问题的话，加之对制电和燃料的需求增加，该国会继续不得不购买进口oil。完全符合逻辑，选D

Gwong

发表于 2018-10-04 10:04:08
In the past the country of Malvernia has relied he...

同意！