求解曼哈顿CR中的一题

相信自己Yo

[size=14.007002830505371px]When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession, people tend to spend less money on nonessential purchases. Therefore, the perceived threat of a future recession decreases the willingness of people to purchase products that they regard as optional or luxury goods.

[size=14.007002830505371px]Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?

[size=14.007002830505371px]A) People do not always agree as to which goods should be considered luxury goods.
[size=14.007002830505371px]B) Many more people read news periodicals today than five years ago.
[size=14.007002830505371px]C) Most people do not regularly read news periodicals.
[size=14.007002830505371px]D) Decreased spending on nonessential goods does not prompt news periodicals to forecast a recession.
[size=14.007002830505371px]E) At least some of the biggest spending consumers prior to the recession were among those who curtailed their spending after the recession began.
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[size=14.007002830505371px]请问大神为什D选项是对的？ 想了好久想不通
[size=14.007002830505371px]谢谢了！！
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L.M.

这道题最初给出了一个correlation：forecast，减少开支是同时发生的。然后Conclusion是一个causation：forecast -> decrease of willingness of purchase -> 减少开支。

Assumption有两种思路，注意到argument只说了forecast与减少开支，没有说decrease of willingness，一种assumption就是补全上述逻辑中间的gaps。

另外，题目给出的是一个correlation，而conclusion直接说A导致了B。因此证明不是B导致的A也能作为Assumption。

A：人们对奢侈品的定义范畴不同。与人们对奢侈品的观点没有联系。
B：现在更多人读新闻了。虽然它说明了人们更多接触了forecast，但是B选项不是使得conclusion必然正确的前提。
C：大部分人不看报纸的。也就说人们不大可能知道forecast，slightly weaken。
D：减少开支不会导致利空的forecast。见上述分析。
E：至少有些在recession之前买买买的人会减少开支。这个选项最多也只是补充说明了第一句提到的correlation。

以及我觉得曼哈顿102页那儿的解释已经说的比较明晰了，LZ可以参考一下～～

相信自己Yo

L.M. 发表于 2018-9-20 20:20
这道题最初给出了一个correlation：forecast，减少开支是同时发生的。然后Conclusion是一个causation：fore ...

非常感谢你啊

老马识图

感谢2楼的解释

想上藤校的leo

还是不懂