OG 2018 逻辑题求教

SRYMS

摘自GMATclub
The conclusion is, indeed, that "[the election results] should not be taken to indicate that the [last pre-election] poll was inaccurate." Okay, how does the author arrive at that conclusion?

•First, we are given the results of the pre-election poll: MOST voters believe that the government needs to address 1) pollution, 2) crime, and 3) unemployment (in that order of importance)
•In the actual election, candidates from parties strongly against pollution were defeated, and candidates from parties that OPPOSED anti-pollution legislation were elected.

This election result seems to go against the pre-election poll. If pollution is the most important problem for most voters, why would they elect people who are not likely to address the pollution problem? We need something that explains this apparent discrepancy while SUPPORTING the conclusion that the pre-election polls should be taken as accurate...


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(A) some voters in Whippleton do not believe that pollution needs to be reduced.

The discrepancy is not resolved by this fact. Even if SOME voters don't think pollution needs to be reduced, MOST voters think that pollution is the most important problem. Thus, it is still surprising that the voters elected people from parties that OPPOSE anti-pollution legislation. (A) can be eliminated.


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(B) every candidate who was defeated had a strong antipollution record

Again, this does not resolve the discrepancy. In fact, this makes the discrepancy even more significant. If most voters think pollution is the most important problem, wouldn't they WANT to elect candidates with strong anti-pollution records? Eliminate (B).


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(C) there were no issues other than crime, unemployment, and pollution on which the candidates had significant differences of opinion

The discrepancy exists regardless of whether the candidates differed on other issues. The discrepancy is that voters elected candidates who seemingly would not address the problem that voters care about the most. Why? Choice (C) does not help answer this question and can be eliminated.


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(D) all the candidates who were elected were perceived as being stronger against both crime and unemployment than the candidates who were defeated

Now we're on to something... Imagine a typical voter who believes that the three most important problems to address are pollution, crime, and unemployment, in that order. On one hand, you have Candidate A, who doesn't seem to care about reducing pollution but appears to be strong against crime and unemployment. On the other hand, you have Candidate B, who seems to be strong against pollution, but doesn't seem to be strong against crime and unemployment. Would you rather have the first priority addressed without addressing the second or third priorities? Or are you willing to sacrifice the top priority if it means addressing the other two? You might decide that 2 out of 3 is better than 1 out of 3, even if that means sacrificing your top priority. This would explain the apparent discrepancy, so (D) looks good.


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(E) many of the people who voted in the election refused to participate in the poll

Remember, we are looking for a statement that SUPPORTS the conclusion that pre-election poll was accurate. By suggesting that the poll was not comprehensive, this statement gives us further reason to DOUBT the accuracy of the pre-election polls. This choice is tempting because it seems to offer a possible explanation for the discrepancy... perhaps most voters who care about crime, unemployment, or other issues did not participate in the poll, making it seem like most voters in Whippleton care about pollution, when in fact most voters (including those not polled) care more about other issues. If (E) is true, we only know that many voters did not participate in the pre-election poll. In order for this to explain the discrepancy, we have to ASSUME that most of the voters who did not participate were voters who do not think pollution is the top priority. And if we make this assumption to explain the discrepancy, we are sacrificing the conclusion by suggesting that the pre-election poll was not accurate. (E) must be eliminated.

starry0328

GPSGWJ 发表于 2017-9-22 14:09
我也选了E 但是仔细想一下 如果many people refused to participate in the poll那poll就是inaccurate的 ...

同意！