求解一道GWD的题

heavenlam

32. GWD30-Q32:

A majorchemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker’s Beach, the world’ssole nesting ground for Merrick sea turtles,and prevented nearly all the eggs laid that year from hatching.  Yet the number ofadult female Merricks returning to lay their eggs at Baker’s Beach has actuallyincreased somewhat since five years ago. Clearly, environmentalists’ prediction that the world’s Merrickpopulation would decline as a result of the spill has proven unfounded.

Which ofthe following, if true, most seriously undermines the argument offered inrefutation of the environmentalists’ prediction?

A.   The chemical spill five years ago occurredat a time when there were neither Merrick sea turtles nor Merrick sea turtleeggs on Baker’s Beach.

B.   FemaleMerrick sea turtles begin returning to Baker’s Beach to lay their eggs when theyare ten years old.

C.   Under normal conditions, only a smallproportion of hatchling female Merrick seaturtles survive in the ocean until adulthood and return to lay their eggs atBaker’s Beach.

D.   Environmental pressures unrelatedto the chemical spill have caused a significant decline in the population ofone of the several species of sea birds that prey on Merricksea turtle eggs.

E.    After the chemical spill, an environmentalgroup rejected a proposal to increase the Merricksea turtle population by transferring eggs from Baker’s Beach to nearby beachesthat had not been affected by the spill.

题目问的应该是削弱最后的那句结论吧？

为什么选B呢？

我当时想选的是D，也就是说有其他原因造成海龟数量上升，所以说海龟数量上升不代表环境专家关于海龟数量会因为漏油事故而下降的预测是错的，只是因为还有其他原因是它上升了。

正确答案B说的是海龟10年后才回来下蛋，可是PREMISE不是有提到来下蛋的母海龟数量从五年前开始增加，这其中的逻辑关系想不通。再请问一下，如果按照推理模式来分类的话，这算什么推理呢？

VincentFSJ

为什么不选B?
b不就是说了老海龟回来下蛋吗？原来的假设就是海龟回来下蛋，说明那一波没毒死海龟，b就削弱了假设，说的是回来的又不是那一波海龟，是另外一拨而已

VincentFSJ

d，海龟都被毒死了，海龟还怎么下蛋呀？；果因推理：
果：海龟回来下蛋
因：五年前的海龟没被毒死