对比OG137&OG42, 质疑逻辑的严密性

Avantasia

42.In the aftermath of a worldwide stock-market crash,Country T claimed thar the severity of the stock-market crash it experienced resulted from the accelerated process of denationalization many of its industries underwent shortly before crash.

Which of the following,if it could be carried out ,would be most useful in an wvaluation of Country T's assessment of the acuses of the severity of its stock-market crash?

A,calculating the average loss experienced by individual traders in Country T during the crash

B,using economic theory to predict the most likely date of the next crash in Country T

C,comparing the total number of shares sold during the worst days of the crash in Country T to the total number of shares sold in Country T just prior to the crash

D,comparing the severity of the crash in Country T to the severity of the crash in countries otherwise economically similar to Country T that have not experienced recent denationalization.

E,comparing the long-term effects of the crash on he purchasing power of the currency of country T to the immediate ,more severe short-term effects of the crash on the purchasing power of the currency of country T

答案是D

137. A study of marital relationships in which one partner's sleeping and waking cycles differ
from those of the other partner reveals that such couples share fewer activities with each other
and have more violent arguments than do couples in a relationship in which both partners
follow the same sleeping and waking patterns. Thus, mismatched sleeping and waking cycles
can seriously jeopardize a marriage.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument above?
(A) Married couples in which both spouses follow the same sleeping and waking patterns
also occasionally have arguments than can jeopardize the couple's marriage.
(B) The sleeping and waking cycles of individuals tend to vary from season to season.
(C) The individuals who have sleeping and waking cycles that differ significantly from those
of their spouses tend to argue little with colleagues at work.
(D) People in unhappy marriages have been found to express hostility by adopting a
different sleeping and waking cycle from that of their spouses.
(E) According to a recent study, most people's sleeping and waking cycles can be
controlled and modified easily.

答案也是D

OG对于137A的解释是:  The argument does not depend on there being only one cause of marital problems, so choice A is incorrect. 意思是原题没有说是唯一的成因, 所以即使产生"睡眠时间相同, 但是婚姻还是不好的结果"也不可以weaken, 因为也许可能有其它原因造成.

反过来看OG42D, 对着上面对于137A的解释, 我也可以说: The argument does not depend on there being only one cause of crash, so choice D is incorrect. 文章用的是result from, 有没有说是only result from啊!

再看OG42的问法, 是问" assessment of the causes of the severity of crash", 但是我觉得由于题目里面没有指定是唯一原因, 所以D如果按照137A中OG解释的说法, 实在是有欠商榷...

请教了.

ring_cheng

个人觉得，这两题的关键区别在于：

OG42是由一个已知的结果推出该结果的原因（有“就是这个原因造成这个结果”的含义），而OG137中的结论（假设）表示的是一种可能性（mismatched sleeping and waking cycles can seriously jeopardize a marriage）

因此OG42中的评价可以从有该原因和没有该原因时的结果来进行对比，以证明该结果是否由该原因造成。而OG137中既然说的是“可能性”，那么削弱就应该从“不可能性”或是“原因造成反结果”或“倒因果”入手，跟其它原因可不可以造成该结果无关。

请讨论。

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-6-27 11:33:40编辑过]

Avantasia

这个我当时也考虑了,但是无法解释说为什么result from就等于result only from, 这个区别还是挺大的, 如果题干加了only, 那这题没话说.

OG42D, 我还是可以说也许有其它的原因导致, 所以单纯的说明accelarated process是否会影响crash似乎无法有效的weaken, 因为题目本来就没有说是resulte only from.

困惑...

ring_cheng

咱们各自取非看一下：

result from取非：not result from,即该结果不是由该原因引起，而存在它因

result only from取非：not only from,即该结果不仅仅由该原因引起，而是它因与该原因并存引起该结果

所以OG42中为了证实“结果result from该原因”，对比的就是“有该原因”与“没有该原因”的结果。

如果改为“结果result only from该原因”，对比的就应该是“只有该原因”与“它因与该原因并存”的不同结果，不符合题目的要求

Avantasia提出了个好问题，请继续讨论。

Avantasia

OG137, 解释的意思是说有可能存在其它的因素导致B, 也就是可能本来是AC-B, 现在即使是~AC, 如果C也是推出B的充分条件的话, 还是会产生B, 所以本身是无法削弱的.

OG42D, 题干没有说明accelatrated process(A)是唯一的原因, 也就是可能有一个它因(C), 同样可以充分推出crash(B), 这就回归到了137的逻辑模型上面...

感觉上面这题ETS可能这种说法就是默认了"only", 而且题目要去weaken"causes"; 我觉得这题ETS没有说清楚, 两题的解释存在一定程度的自相矛盾.

PS. 个人观点是不可以用取非的方式看, 因为137的can如果取非就是cannot, 而选项A已经充分说明了cannot了.

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-6-27 12:51:01编辑过]

ring_cheng

OG42D, 题干没有说明accelatrated process(A)是唯一的原因, 也就是可能有一个它因(C), 同样可以充分推出crash(B), 这就回归到了137的逻辑模型上面...
我觉得这题ETS可能这种说法就是默认了"only",

我觉得42题ETS倒未必是默认only A为原因，有可能A是唯一的原因，也有可能A与C并存导致B，还有可能是完全它因导致，因为这题没有告之其它的情况，所以就只能在（默认）“其它条件不变”时进行有A/无A的对比

OG137, 解释的意思是说有可能存在其它的因素导致B, 也就是可能本来是AC-B, 现在即使是~AC, 如果C也是推出B的充分条件的话, 还是会产生B, 所以本身是无法削弱的.

137题说的是充分性的问题，即“A能否导致B”，并没有要求A是B的唯一原因（有可能是唯一原因，也有可能A/C原因并存，也有可能C导致B），因此跟“C是否能导致B”无关。

关于取非，可能我想得还不够成熟，再看看。

PS：如此讨论的确有趣！

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-6-27 13:11:30编辑过]

Avantasia

我还是觉得42是要必须默认only, evaluation的题目如果回答是肯定则加强, 否定则削弱, 但是如果说存在它因C的话, 对于"领国在没有accelarated process的情况下也经历了crash"这中肯定回答, 无法推出"AP和crash"有关(和137道理相同).

ring_cheng

42题的逻辑链：T国的S（股票狂跌）是由于AP造成的。

评价：D. comparing the severity of the crash in Country T to the severity of the crash in countries otherwise economically similar to Country T that have not experienced recent denationalization.

答案中对它国有一个限定：otherwise economically similar to Country T，即其它国家除了没有经历AP外，其它都与T国一样，正是所谓“其它条件都一样”。

肯定回答：它国没有经历AP，但也有S，说明因果关系断开，AP不是S的原因（削弱结论：AP是S的原因）；

否定回答：它国没有经历AP，没有S，说明无因无果，AP就是S的原因（加强结论）

对于"领国在没有accelarated process的情况下也经历了crash"这中肯定回答, 无法推出"AP和crash"有关(和137道理相同). --它国没有AP但有S，说明的正好是AP与S无关啊！

Avantasia

前两天思维比较僵硬, otherwise economically similar to Country T 是关键.

guown

M一个。下次来看