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5. Greenhouse Myths
"Ice caps melting" -- A common myth is that sea level rises will be caused by melting polar icecaps.
The sea level rises predicted for the next 40 years will be caused by ocean water expanding as it warms and by some melting of non-polar ice.
"Is it hotter now?" -- Another myth is that global warming predictions are based on extrapolations past temperature rises.
The forcast of future change do not depend on evidence from observations, but have been made on the basis of a primary understanding of the climate system and through the use of climate models.
"Heat Islands" -- There have been claims that the measurements of global temperatures have been distorted by the "Urban Effect", with local temperature rises caused by urban development.
In practice, climatologists have carefully corrected the data to account for spurious effects, like the urban heat island effect. Furthermore, other records, such as middle tropospheric measurements, observations of maritime temperatures and a world-wide retreat of mountain glaciers.
"Waiting for the next ice age to solve the greenhouse effect"
Typically, a order of 4 degrees centigrade change occurred over a period of about 1000 years during the ice age. The rate of temperature change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is anticipated to be about 0.3 degrees centigate per decade. "Those who are 'Waiting for the next ice age to solve the greenhouse effect', will have to wait a very long time!"
"Missing sink" -- Of the estimated seven billion tons of carbon from human-generated carbon dioxide going into the atmosphere each year, about three billion tons stay there. We know the oceans take up about two billion tons. Where is the remainder going?
The remainder must also be going into the ocean or be taken up by living plants.
减少温室效应的方法:
Vegetation
Vegetation changes caused by a climate change would affect the hydrologic cycle and suface albedo. The biggest adverse impact of a CO2-induced climate change would be caused by changing precipitation patterns that would lead to overall lower rainfall amounts, or droughts during the growing season with increased frequency or severity. The biomass productivity is linearly related to the amount of water transpired over the course of a growing season. The high correlation has been found between the NDVI, a index of biomass productivity, and the precipitation during the growth season. Furthermore, high temperture appears to be detrimental to seed growth because it shortens the time period for this stage of growth in many plants. However, the rise of atmospheric CO2 concentration should cause increase in photosynthesis, growth and productivity of the earth's vegetation. Thus, the direct effects of rising CO2 and expected climate change should have a less adverse impact on vegetation than climate change alone.
Ocean
The world's oceans have complicated reactions or feedbacks on the enhanced greenhouse effect. On one hand, they can provide sources for the increased water vapor as the earth becomes warming. On the other hand, the thermal holding capacity of the oceans would delay and effectively reduce the observed global warming. In addition, oceans play an important role in the global greenhouse gas budgets. For example, according to some estimates, the recent anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 may be responsible for a large part of the recent global warming. The ocean bitoa, primarily phytoplankton, are believed to remove at least half of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere. Hence, the ocean sink of carbon dioxide is called the "biological CO2 pump". However, further knowledge about the flux of carbon between ocean and atmosphere is needed to accurately predict the consequences of the build-up of carbon dioxide.
Clouds & Water Vapour
Clouds are simultaneously strong downward infrared radiators and shortwave solar radiation reflectors. However, how clouds are likely to change with increased greenhouse warming is essentially unknown. Global warming will lead to an increase in the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere and because water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas, this will lead to an increase in the warming. However, some scientists propose that tropical storm clouds would reach higher in the atmosphere under warmer conditions. Then the clouds would produce more rain thus adding less water vapour to the middle troposphere. The resulting drier middle troposhere will produce a negitive feedback to the global warming.
Sea Ice
Generally, increased temperture would tend to melt ice and result in increased absorption of solar energy by the ocean, a positive feedback. However, a decrease in sea ice would also lead to larger heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere, a negative feedback. Thus, the interaction amoung the atmosphere, the ocean, sea ice, and the sensitivity of sea ice to climate change need to be observed and quantified.
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