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A recent report determined that although only 3 percent of drivers on Maryland highways equipped their vehicles with radar detectors, 33 percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them. Clearly, drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not.

The conclusion drawn above depends on which of the following assumptions?

正确答案: B

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请教OG13-77

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楼主
发表于 2013-6-26 11:59:49 | 显示全部楼层
这题纠结了很久很久,看了那么多帖子自己再梳理一下,应该算是弄明白了。
主要逻辑链为:3%有雷达但贡献了33%的超速ticketed-->(assumption)-->有雷达的更经常超速(注意这里不再强调是否ticketed,而是简单的focus在超速这个习惯上)。因此回到括号中未填的assumption,[超速被ticketed=经常性超速]?举个例子,运气很背的人,装了radar,但是就有一次超速经验,瞬间被阿sir抓住,就ticketed了,那这个能说是有雷达就经常超速么?明显不可以,所以这里要建立的联系就是怎么使【超速被ticketed=经常性超速】这个逻辑严谨起来。正确答案,因超速被ticketed的更有可能经常性超速,bingo,等式联系起来了,于是这个逻辑链完成:
3%有雷达但贡献了33%的超速ticketed(说明有radar超速被 ticketed的比例很大)-->被ticketed的更有可能经常性超速-->有雷达的更经常超速
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