Prep 12题里面那道投票的谁能解释一下？

huangkang3039

在其他网站上看到的答案，应该能看懂。
就是说投票的时候他们可能说一套，做一套。说不同的偏好对于最后实际投票与之前所说偏好的一致性有影响。比如Zeta，如果这个政党的人说他们反对的话，那么他们有70%的可能性最后实际上会投反对； 但如果他们事先说同意的话，那么他们最后只有不到50%的可能性投同意。
所以第一题问的是统一性，那么就是看整条曲线，Delta基本上是属于统一性最高的，从60-80%的可能性；
而第二题只用看一个点，就是在反对的那个x轴纵向的看，如果他们事先说反对的话，那么Zeta是最可能投反对票的一个政党。 Hope it helps.
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The first question asks which party's members are most likely to vote according to their stated preference (i.e. if they said they were for it, they vote for it, and if they said they were against it, they vote against it.) The y-axis shows the probability of a vote matching the stated preference. For people who are against the issue, Zeta is the party that is most likely to vote according to that position (at about 70%). However, we see a sharp decrease as we move towards people who are for the issue (where there is under a 50% chance for Zeta voters against the issue to vote against the issue). The Delta party is much more consistent, ranging from 60% (for voters who are against the issue) to just over 80% (for voters who are for the issue).

The second question is only concerned with the "against" column, and as we saw in the first question, Zeta voters are most likely to vote according to their "against" preference.