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I had the following debate with windboy in another thread, here. http://forum.chasedream.com/North_American_MBA/thread-432500-3-1.html ------- him: "it is not wise to draw conclusions purely on the basis of your personal experiences/stories, etc. you will need to look at the mba population as a whole and do some statistical analysis to draw any meanful conclusion, rather than any other methods else. of course, the data are really hard to come by.
anyway, i think it makes sense that mba program, as a whole, will NOT be a loser's game, if you look at the supply and demand of mbas-to-be, if we assume that people are avearage rational investors. therefore, it is really simple to know the answer, even without using any sophisticated statisitcal analysis..." ------- me: "Sure. Sometimes you need to be able to draw the right conclusions after making assumptions- there, statistical analyses helps. But you always need to understand what the right assumptions are. What makes you think that 'people', and particularly 'the mba population', are average rational investors?
Besides, I will never forget what Steven Levitt told us in class one fine day in Chicago. What matters TO YOU is not the 'average' investor, but the 'marginal' investor. Data collection not withstanding, looking at others can sometimes be the completely wrong gauge of what you should be thinking about. I think even the most traditional economist will disagree that the following chain of logic (which is what you are suggesting) is right: 'people are average rational investors' -> 'i am a person' -> 'therefore i MUST be an average rational investor, because I must be the average'.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying it's wrong to look at others. In many cases, people should do more looking at others. Unfortunately when it comes to business school, however, my experience is that most people do too much looking at others, and do not do enough looking at themselves. Maybe you are the opposite- which still supports my conclusion that everyone should and must decide for themselves." --------- him: "i am now really surprised that you were trained in chicago, as your comments sound more like typical wharton grads i have come across, quite a few..than from chicago, where Lucas is the god father for rationalism/expectation...
steve is very smart/renowned micro-economist and i won't argue sth abt some basic stuff from econ101. anyone with decent training in statistics/econometrics will understand my previous comments, which of course involves nothing technicality, which i didn't bother to include. my comments before were more of a methodolgy suggestion, rather going into details of explaining how to set up your regression equations and calibration methods with MCMC or gmm (check it out on Hansen's page if gmm doesn't ring a bell or google gibbs sampling algorithm if you don't understand MCMC.)
i made my comments before as some of the comments on this thread were becoming too philosophical, with too good rethorics to have much practical relevance.. anyway, won't waste too much time as still lots of work to do today even it is saturday, sign...
the bottom line of my suggestion: mba from a top school is sth will highly likely to change your life/career. so don't give it up if you have an offer. it is like a simple trading rule: you will have higher probability of being up while the downside is limited. The risk/return profile of an mba is very good."
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I would like to comment (or more accurately, vent). We obviously have different opinions. Fine. No problem. What I find difficult to accept is being challenged that "I was trained in Chicago", especially when someone doesn't know me, and sends off replies rapidly because they "don't want to waste too much time because they have lots of work to do, even on a Saturday sigh". Guess what- the world doesn't revolve around you.
I too have work to do. I too treasure my time. I volunteer it- I give it- because I respect the opinions and dreams of others here, and try to help you along the way. I will never make a comment like "I am only saying this quickly" because I understand that every comment I make will be scrutinised. And so I am careful with my words. After all, these are all your dreams we're talking about. I want to respect you, and the best way to do that is to consider carefully your comments, and respond appropriately.
That aside, I also do not appreciate the personal attacks on whether I deserve to be at Wharton, Chicago, or anywhere else. If you read this, Windboy: you may be smarter than me, particularly when it comes to Statistics. But I do not think that that gives you the right to pretend to know me, judge me, and thereafter criticise me, based on a couple of comments that I've made.
It's hurtful when things like that happen. But maybe I'm just too sensitive. Perhaps a better person than I would not have been affected.
Jason |
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