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Market analysts are technical experts whose special access to the data of large companies gives them unique opportunities to track and predict those companies’ earnings and prices on the stock market with uncommon precision. By several statistical measures, however, the accuracy of market analysts’ predictions declined suddenly and markedly in the early 1990s.
Which of the following, if true, would best help to explain the decline in market analysts’ accuracy that occurred in the early 1990s?
A. Computer-generated statistical analysis of many forms of economic data become more readily and inexpensively available to market analysts in the early 1990s.
B. International influences on the stock market performance of most large companies became more complex in the early 1990s, and this made the gathering of reliable data about those companies more difficult.
C. A wave of corporate mergers and buyouts led market analysts to improve their short-term forecasting models in the mid-1980s.
D. Throughout the 1980s and early 1990s, the predictions of the highest-paid market analysts were not much more accurate than those of market analysts who were less well paid.
E. Beginning in the late 1990s many large companies started making the information that had once been available only to market analysts more widely available.



Sea turtles caught in traditional shrimp nets drown. Five years ago, Ridland’s government introduced a requirement that all nets used to catch shrimp be equipped with special devices that allow sea turtles to escape if caught in the net. In the first four years, significantly fewer sea turtles washed up dead on Ridland's shores. Last year, the number was five percent higher than before the program began. Clearly, therefore, many shrimpers have stopped complying with the law.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?
(A) because of conservation programs at sea-turtle nesting sites, the population of sea turtles migrating through Ridland’s waters was up sharply last year
(B) The special devices allow not only turtles but also some shrimp to escape from shrimp nets, reducing the amount of shrimp that a shrimp boat can catch in a day.
(C) Because of the direction of ocean currents in and around Ridland's waters, any sea turtles that wash up dead on Ridland’s shores are likely to have died within the area fished by Ridlandian shrimp boats.
(D) The fine for violating the law requiring shrimp nets to have the special devices was increased last year and is now greater than the cost of purchasing such a device.
(E) Because of a number of measures unrelated to the protection of sea turtles, Ridland’s waters are less polluted now than they were five years ago.



参考答案：
BA

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Market analysts are technical experts whose special access to the data of large companies gives them unique opportunities to track and predict those companies’ earnings and prices on the stock market with uncommon precision. By several statistical measures, however, the accuracy of market analysts’ predictions declined suddenly and markedly in the early 1990s.市场分析是一种通过数据为大公司提供追踪和预测收入和价格的方式。然而市场分析的正确性突然降低在1990年早期，问解释为什么正确性降低了
Which of the following, if true, would best help to explain the decline in market analysts’ accuracy that occurred in the early 1990s?
A. Computer-generated statistical analysis of many forms of economic data become more readily and inexpensively available to market analysts in the early 1990s.   跟价格无关
B. International influences on the stock market performance of most large companies became more complex in the early 1990s, and this made the gathering of reliable data about those companies more difficult.   国际影响导致市场情况复杂，公司收集可靠信息变难了，没有信息就分析不了了，正确
C. A wave of corporate mergers and buyouts led market analysts to improve their short-term forecasting models in the mid-1980s.   与长期短期策略无关
D. Throughout the 1980s and early 1990s, the predictions of the highest-paid market analysts were not much more accurate than those of market analysts who were less well paid.     不需要跟别的时期对比
E. Beginning in the late 1990s many large companies started making the information that had once been available only to market analysts more widely available.  把信息分享的范围扩大了，无关



Sea turtles caught in traditional shrimp nets drown. Five years ago, Ridland’s government introduced a requirement that all nets used to catch shrimp be equipped with special devices that allow sea turtles to escape if caught in the net. In the first four years, significantly fewer sea turtles washed up dead on Ridland's shores. Last year, the number was five percent higher than before the program began. Clearly, therefore, many shrimpers have stopped complying with the law.
传统捕虾会伤害海龟，政府颁布了政策要求捕虾的人用特殊的设备使海龟可以逃脱。在前四年，死的海龟数量明显少了，但是去年死的海龟比颁布政策之前还要高5%，所以一定是捕虾的人不遵守规定
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?
(A) because of conservation programs at sea-turtle nesting sites, the population of sea turtles migrating through Ridland’s waters was up sharply last year 由于保护海龟项目，海龟的数量大大提升，所以死亡的数量提高是因为总体数量高了，不是捕虾的人造成的，正确
(B) The special devices allow not only turtles but also some shrimp to escape from shrimp nets, reducing the amount of shrimp that a shrimp boat can catch in a day.  特殊设备让捕到的虾的数量少了，那正说明为什么捕虾的人要不遵守规定，加强结论
(C) Because of the direction of ocean currents in and around Ridland's waters, any sea turtles that wash up dead on Ridland’s shores are likely to have died within the area fished by Ridlandian shrimp boats.    加强结论
(D) The fine for violating the law requiring shrimp nets to have the special devices was increased last year and is now greater than the cost of purchasing such a device.  罚款高于买新设备的钱，但不一定说明捕虾人会不遵守规定
(E) Because of a number of measures unrelated to the protection of sea turtles, Ridland’s waters are less polluted now than they were five years ago.   水污染减轻了，无关



B A

zyycn

1、分析师特殊获取企业数据的渠道让他们的预测很准确，但是1990年代早期的准确性突然下降。
问explain
思考：因果论证，他因解释反果。

A：1990年代早期，计算机数据更便宜且容易获得。无关。
B：1990年代国际影响更复杂，导致获取可靠的公司数据更难。正确，他因造成准确性下降。
C：1980年代中期一系列的合并收购使得分析师改进了短期预测模型。年代无关。
D：高薪分析师并不比普通分析师预测更准确。无关。
E：1990年代末期，公司将数据更开放，而不是仅针对分析师。年代无关，且无法解释。

选B

2、现象：前四年龟死亡数量下降，第五年龟死亡数量上升，原因：渔民开始不遵守规定。
问weaken
思考：果因论证，考虑削弱因果联系或他因削弱。

A：去年龟数量大幅上升。正确，他因导致。
B：装置会减少一天捕获的虾。无关。
C：因为洋流，这些被wash died的龟很可能在这些海域已经死了。无关。
D：罚款去年增加了，且比设备还高。渔民不遵守规定的成本增加，但是不能说明渔民就一定不遵守规定，AD对比，A更优。
E：水污染减少了。无关。

选A

svwma

BA

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bA

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