OGVerbal Review-63 关于选项相关无关的讨论

kenvysky

which of the following most logically completes the arguement?
Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter, but in recent decades economic stagnation and restrictive regulation inhibited investment in new oil fields. In consequence, Utranian oil exports dropped steadily as old fields became depleted. Ultrania's currently improving economic situation, together with less restrictive regulations, will undoubtedly result in the rapid development of new fields. However, it would be premature to conclude that the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports, because___
A. the price of oil is expected to remain relatively stable over the next several years
B. the improvement in the economic situation in Utrania is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the proportion of Utranian who own automobiles
C. most of the investment in new oil fields in Utrania is expected to come from foreign sources
D. new technology is available to recover oil from old oil fields formerly regarded as depleted
E. many of the new oil fields in Utrania are likely to be as productive as those that were developed during the period when Utrania was a major oil exporter
答案是B, 其实题目不算难，但是我在对选项进行相关无关判断的时候产生了疑问。对于相关无关的概念，我一直是以一道GWD里面的题目为基础进行理解的：题目我记得是这样:

冬天的雪，压断树枝，砸到小汽车上。但是秋天砸到小汽车的次数比冬天多了很多，然后问下面哪个解释resolve了这个现象

然后其中的B选项是 冬天积雪，车主们都知道，所以冬天很少把车放树下，秋天会放树下。

这里GWD说是无关选项，因为B项只回答了车放在哪里的问题，而一般人喜欢加入自己的想法，他们容易去推断：因为车放树下所以砸的次数很多，然后得出B项是对的

根据他的说法，我总结出，一道题目一定不能加入自己的想法，不然一些无关选项都会可以推出结论。

但是在题上这道题的B项里，你必须要自己assume或者infer出：automobile需要消耗domestic oil consumption（为什么这就不是加入自己想法了？），才能推出结论，于是我产生了以下疑问：

一道题，既不能加入自己的想法，很多时候又要对选项 进行合理推理，到底这两者的boundary在哪，怎样区分我既没有加入自己想法，并且按照ETS的意思进行推理了？？

这个问题真的困扰了我很久很久，因为OG上我几乎每一道题都会碰上这样一个问题，不知道是不是我没有抓住ETS的出题思路，期待各位NN对于选项相关无关的精彩讲解~~~

kenvysky

自己顶一下，真的拜托各位了！

sdcar2010

assume and infer are two different things.

Assume: could be true

Infer: must be true.

If you understand the difference between these two actions, you would solve the problems you just mentioned.

In the oil export one, country U is an oil EXPORTER. What does that tell you?

kenvysky

您的意思是不是说：有关的选项是一定可以infer出来的，根据已知的implict assumption可以推出来的，而无关的干扰项则有可能是真的，也有可能是假的？

在这道题目中， oil exporter的隐含的premise是此国家之前的 production大于consumption？

sdcar2010

LZ, you are too mechanical on logical reasoning.

For certain question types, outside information is allowed.  For others, outside information is not allowed.

Take the snow/car problem for example, this is a paradox question which asks you to find a logical explanation.

汽车车主知道冬天的积雪会将树枝压断打到车上，所以在冬天的时候他们根本没有把车放到树下

This is a possible reason, thus, a correct answer. If in winter, most cars are garaged, there won't be as many case of damage by smashing snow as when cars are parked under a tree.  In fact, a paradox question invites outside information if the information can resolve the perplexing situation. What is your choice for this question? Why?

Back to the oil field/export question, it is a variant of paradox question. You are asked to find a logical explanation based on the available info. B is a logical reason to support the conclusion. Case closed.