请教逻辑题GWD5-Q21

mylittlebird

GWD5-Q21:
In Teruvia, the quantity of rice produced per year is currently just large enough to satisfy domestic demand.  Teruvia’s total rice acreage will not be expanded in the foreseeable future, nor will rice yields per acre increase appreciably.  Teruvia’s population, however, will be increasing significantly for years to come.  Clearly, therefore, Teruvia will soon have to begin importing rice.

Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?

A.    No pronounced trend of decreasing per capita demand for rice is imminent in Teruvia.
B.    Not all of the acreage in Teruvia currently planted with rice is well suited to the cultivation of rice.
C.    None of the strains of rice grown in Teruvia are exceptionally high-yielding.
D.    There are no populated regions in Teruvia in which the population will not increase.
E.    There are no major crops other than rice for which domestic production and domestic demand are currently in balance in Teruvia.
我觉得E比较合理，但答案是A。大家是怎么看的呢？

ipeanuts

E中你加入了自己的推理：就是no major crops可以代替rice满足原先人们对rice的需求。其实应该是无关选项
逻辑就是要直接，A是最直接的

luoxlucy88

A取非以后：每个人对大米的需求都将要有所减少，所以就算population increase了，总需求也不一定会increase。取非可以削弱。是assumption。

E是讲currently的情况，和未来的population increase没什么关系吧。

个人意见，仅供参考。

jbc88

C呢？C取非后，不就是 单株有高产量了吗？这样不对进口的结论有削弱了吗？

noreen1027

原文说的是RICE，E说的是 major crops other than rice ，即使能替代米，使每个人对米的需求量减少（及A），也需要假设能替代米。lawyer
你可以参考下~

gzguohongbo

文章的前提已经说了产量不会增加，C取非后直接是否定前提了，是不可取的

xohe赵

4楼比较有道理

nadianshide

import= demand-supply =demand-产出/m2*面积， 已知产出和面积均不变，个么只能demand变了

海蓝飞飞

ipeanuts 发表于 2010-8-13 09:41
E中你加入了自己的推理：就是no major crops可以代替rice满足原先人们对rice的需求。其实应该是无关选项逻 ...

Mark一下！               

W.H.Y

A. 本来供需均衡, 供给不变, 人均粮食需求量不变, 人口增加, 那么供不应求. 但如果人均粮食需求量减少, 就不一定供不应求. 所以A构成假设.
C. 供给跟不上需求的问题不一定因为作物不够高产. 这一点无法从题设中推断. 比如产能已经达到潜力极限, 但依然跟不上需求的增长, 这种可能性也无法排除.
E. 供给跟不上需求的问题也不一定因为没有其他主要作物. 因为就算有其他主要作物, 另外这种作物的产量能否跟上总需求的变化还有待证实. 因此这个选项是raises new questions.