Support

reyleena

When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.














Answer is D.
the choice is so confusing. I really need analysis for all the choices,T_T
very big thank :-)

sdcar2010

When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Premise:
When people predict "certain result requires certain action," they believe that they have learned that "when the action is taken and the result occurs, their prediction is correct."

Conclusion:
But on reflection, it often becomes clear that the result has more than one interpretation.

What these statements are saying is that "Although one can predict certain result requires certain action, but when the action is taken and the result is shown, one is NOT certain that the action DOES cause the result since there are more than one way to explain the result. Therefore, one is not sure to say the original prediction is correct." In other words, one cannot tell if the prediction is correct simply because the action and the result happens sequentially.

D supports the conlucion that it is hard to confirm a prediction as correct because if D is right, one would have a hard time to tell a correct prediction from an incorrect prediction.