Analyst: The pace of technological development brings a constant streamof new devices to the market, and many of them enjoy commercialsuccess. But announcing new technology too soon after the introductionof a successful device can backfire. Once consumers hear about the newdevice, they may stop buying the one currently on sale. So, if acompany wishes to announce the upcoming sale of a new device, it shouldwait until purchases of the old device have begun to decline.
Which of the following, if true, would best support the analyst's main assertion? A. New technology often becomes less expensive after an initial surge in sales. B. Media outlets, such as television programs and magazines, oftenreport on the planned introduction of new devices while the sales ofold devices are still strong. C. Many consumers are unable to determine whether new technology is superior to current technology. D. Surveys have shown that some consumers make only one or twotechnology purchases per year, whereas others make more frequentpurchases. E. Consumers tend to be loyal to technology companies whose products they enjoy using. 大家看下这题改选什么，顺便帮忙分析下，谢谢
here's the clincher when you have to decide something like this: pick the choice that stays as CLOSE to the logic / conclusion of the passage as possible.
the problem with choice c is that it introduces a new consideration - "superiority" - that is COMPLETELY unaddressed in, and therefore irrelevant to, the passage. you have to make all kinds of assumptions to push this answer choice into even the darkest corners of the argument's scope: in particular, (1) you have to introduce the assumption that consumers make tech purchasing decisions based on "superiority", AND (2) even if you allow this assumption (note that allowing random assumptions is never a good idea), you still have no idea how the "superiority" angle is going to affect purchasing decisions! you'd have to introduce even more assumptions along the lines of "the new version is superior / inferior to the old version". bad bad bad.
you are right that choice b requires the assumption that media coverage of new devices will follow the official announcement of those devices. this may be somewhat of an assumption, but it's absolutely trifling relative to the enormous assumptions detailed above for choice c. what's more, this assumption is clearly relevant to the argument. don't forget that the vast majority of wrong answers on weaken/strengthen problems are wrong because they're totally irrelevant to the argument. if you can find a weaken/strengthen answer choice that is CLEARLY related to the information in the passage, then you're halfway there!
one more consideration: your reasoning against choice b is weaker than it may at first seem. while it may be true that the media publish speculative reports about "leaked" products, (1) you have to assume that that happens, always a dangerous thing, and (2) for average products, the amount and effect of such speculative coverage is almost certainly very, very small. the fact that you used the iphone - a very exceptional device, one that defies just about every market norm out there in some way - as your example is telling: such reasoning is unlikely to extend to run-of-the-mill technological products such as the ones presumably treated by the passage.
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发表于 2010-4-14 16:24:49
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