OG12-72(CR)

zcool

72. Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the
opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small
towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town,
within fi ve years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping
district.
The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?
(A) Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store
on the outskirts of their towns?
(B) Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in
Morganville?
(C) In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer
bankruptcy during a typical fi ve-year period?
(D) What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn from
Morganville?
(E) Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their fi rst fi ve years of operation?

答案是C，我觉得B也对，是不是C更好，请大家指教。。

zhongshanlh

个人意见，问题问的是most useful，所以我们挑的是most useful的选项。
B呢，正如前面的讨论所说，可能性实在是太多了——比如这些居民在新店开了的情况下也可以在市中心购物，也可能开了以后就不在市中心购物了，也可能购买力很强，既在市中心也在outskirt，所以即使我们知道了B的答案（yes or no），对于我们判断问题也是基本上没有帮助的，这就是OG解释中所说的The conclusion would be supported just as well—or as poorh/—if this question were answered with a yes as with a no.因为知道与不知道对于我们判断这个结论没有任何帮助

Heather_Lau

依然不明白为什么要选C.
ans里面说的"proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period",这一句所谓的bankruptcy也指的是开了saveall之后的bankruptcy么?
如果按照大家的说法,ans C提供了另外一个相同condition的模型,如果这个模型的破产率不到25%,是否说明题目中的one quarter破产率并非油saveall的opening引起的?
唉,自己都晕晕的,不知道大家看懂我在说什么没?

Nicolexin

Got it!

helenlife

B：即便大家目前都在M购物，SA来了，大家还是可能都换到那边购物。所以没办法很好evaluate the reasoning。
C：最佳方法

holyh

一点愚见

C的理由是， 题目中类比的一个隐含前提是 两个地区的商店类型一致

如果两个地区的商店类型完全不一致， 开SaveAll的后果就会不一致

Lonelydance

原文说开一个新店不好,因为会使别的沿街的店在5年内倒闭...仅此而已
   b 你b说这地方的居民是否在这里买大多数的生活用品,这原文提到了么?
      c c给您模拟了一个和这个地方1模1样的环境下的例子,你能不选他吗

rainbowmanutd

B无关吧。。argument是  要维持healthy 就要阻止S.A store 。知道买不买东西和这个argument是没关系的。、

zcool

谢谢！

yueqianchen

B选项是Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping 【at stores in Morganville】?
注意一下部分：
central shopping district
SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district
中心区和SA都在M内！