揽瓜阁阅读做题小分队 第101天 社会意识与通胀

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In all industrial countries, the seventies were a time of slowdown in real economic growth. In some countries, people resisted the decline in real income growth and tried to maintain their accustomed growth in living standards by demanding higher wages and salaries. In other countries, where there was a higher degree of ‘social consensus’, it was recognized that such a wage-price spiral would be damaging to the society as a whole, and people accepted the lower real income growth without demanding a pushing up of wages and prices. In testing this hypothesis, researchers examined the experience of eighteen industrial countries in the seventies. It was seen that the differences in the inflation performances of these countries were well-explained by the indicator representing the degrees of social consciousness.

Two rationales are advanced for the role of social consensus. The first is based on conflict over the distribution of a known loss in aggregate real income, while the second is based on imperfect information regarding the size of the loss. The two rationales are not mutually exclusive, but the first represents a greater departure from economic orthodoxy than the second. Let us first suppose that there is a big increase in the price of imported oil and that the size of the resulting loss of aggregate real income is known to all. In countries having a high degree of consensus, each group of individuals may be willing to scale down its claim on output in the same proportion as the aggregate reduction. On the other hand, in countries lacking such consensus, there may be an unwillingness to scale down demands. In the latter case, inflationary pressures will emerge even though the process is ultimately likely to be counterproductive or irrational from the point of view of the society as a whole.

According to the second rationale, workers demand no more than what is warranted by productivity, and if they know that productivity has fallen or oil prices have increased, they are willing to accept a lower wage. However, workers will not generally have enough information to know the value of their contribution to production, and they will not necessarily believe statements by the firm that productivity growth has declined. They will not be certain whether such statements are true or whether these statements represent attempts by the firm to cheat them. Statements by the firms will have greater credibility where the firms have established a reputation for fairness than where there is a high degree of mistrust between workers and employers. The greater the degree of trust, the less will be the workers’ resistance to reduction in the level or growth rate of real wage.

Both rationales suggest that real wages may be relatively inflexible, at least in downward direction, when there is a lack of social consensus.

Source: Controlling Inflation: Learning from Experience in Canada, Europe and Japan – Clarence Barber, John McCallum

1. Which of the following can be concluded from the information given in the passage?
A. Economic slowdown causes inflation.
B. Unwillingness to scale down demands in the event of a known loss in aggregate real income prevents social consensus.
C. People's acceptance of lower real income growth can prevent inflation.
D. Reliable indicators of social consciousness exist.
E. Workers are generally resistant to reduction in the level or growth rate of real wage.

2. Which one of the following will most strengthen the author's viewpoint that lack of social consensus makes wages inflexible?
A. An agreement among workers that wage-price spiral is damaging to society as a whole.
B. A report that concludes that the high inflation in a given country is a result of its workers' unwillingness to accept lower wages.
C. Empirical evidence that the greater the mistrust between workers and employers, the more the inflation in the country.
D. A news report that a workers' union refused a wage-reducing proposal by its management.
E. A research indicating that inflationary pressures are likely to be counterproductive for a nation's economy.

3. The authors believe which of the following regarding the two rationales advanced for the role of social consensus?
I. Both the rationales challenge traditional economics.
II. Both the rationales explain the role of social consensus in inflation performance.
III. The rationales can co-exist.
A. I only
B. II only
C. II and III only
D. I and II only
E. I, II, and III

参考答案：

DDE

setmefree1

1.
所以工业化国家，70年代是实际经济增长的时间。人们抵制实际工资的减少并试图通过多更高工资的需求来维持生活水平。其他社会意识强烈的国家，工资下降被认为是破坏社会，人们不需要增长工资和价格，接受更低实际收入。为验证这些假设，研究人员检测18个工业化国家。这些国家的通货膨胀不同表现被代表社会意识指标很好解释了。
2.
2个根本原因为社会意识作用提出。第一个是以已知的总实际需求丧失的分配争端为基础的，第二个是对损失大小的不完全信息。这两个不是互相包含，但是第一个比第二个更多背离经济正统。假设进口油的价格大上涨，总实际收入公开。在意识高的国家，每个个体组都意图减少诉求产出规模和总产出一样的比例。缺乏这些意识的国家，可能有不情愿减少需求。此种情况下，通胀压力将扩大，即使从社会角度看，过程最终事与愿违或不合理。
3.
第二种原因，工人需求不超过生产需要，如果他们知道生产力下降或者油价上升，他们愿意接受低工资。然而，工人们对他们对生产的贡献信息了解少，并且他们不必须相信工厂生产力下降。他们不确定是否是真的还是工厂欺骗。当工厂建立好声誉时，说的话才有可信度。信任的程度越高，工人对减少真实工资的增长率或水平的抵制。
两个都表明真实工资是相对稳定的，至少当缺乏社会意识时呈下降方向。

DDC

ccccherry

ECC

jiajiajiayi

DBE

喜皮

7.18

lfengi

CCC

Cecii

看一下！               

Nanenla

现象：工业城市的实际工资的增长在国家70多岁的时候都会下跌，social consensus是inflation的关键因素
理论依据：
1.        （知道实际工资增长率下跌）social consensus弱的国家会要求工资上涨，造成通货膨胀；Social consensus强的国家知道工资物价螺旋上升对经济破坏巨大，愿意接受工资实际增长率下跌，就不会造成很高的通货膨胀
2.        （不知道实际工资增长率下跌）名誉好的公司能够让员工接受工资不上涨；名誉差的公司不行
结论：social consensus差的国家的实际工资增长率相对没有这么灵活

CBC

别碰我宝藏

Mark一下！               

LeenaVS

同意！