OG17一道CR求指教啦

半夏冬忍

Debater: The average amount ofovertime per month worked by an employee in the manufacturing divisionof the Haglut Corporation is 14 hours. Most employees of the Haglut Corporationwork in the manufacturing division. Furthermore, the average amount of overtimeper month worked by any employee in the company generally does not fluctuatemuch from month to month. Therefore, each month, most employeesof the Haglut Corporation almost certainly work atleast some overtime.

The debater's argument is mostvulnerable to criticism on which of these grounds?

(A) It takes for granted that the manufacturing division is a typical divisionof the corporation with regard to the average amount of overtime its employeeswork each month.

(B) It takes for granted that if a certain average of amount of overtime isworked each month by each employee of the Haglut Corporation, then approximatelythe same amount of overtime must be worked each month by each employee of themanufacturing division.

(C) It confuses a claim from which the argument's conclusion about the HaglutCorporation would necessarily follow with a claim that would follow from theargument's conclusion only with a high degree of probability.

(D) It overlooks the possibility that even if, on average, a certain amount of overtimeis worked by the members of some group, many members of that group may work no overtime at all.

(E) It overlooks the possibility that even if mostemployees of the corporation work some overtime eachmonth, anyone corporate employee may, in some months, work no overtime.

答案D

看了答案可以理解是结论高估了可能性：大部分人不加班 小部分人加班 所以导致平均加班的多

想问一下一开始做的时候在DE之间非常纠结 长的太像了一时就一脸懵逼……

在这种情况下对于DE之间应该如何决断出来呢？

求各位指教！谢谢啦！

frankzheng43

Fiona09 发表于 2017-2-14 10:40
题干是说：H公司的制造部门的一个员工每月的平均加班时间为14小时。H公司的大多数员工都在制造部。另外该公 ...

同意！               

半夏冬忍

Fiona09 发表于 2017-2-14 10:40
题干是说：H公司的制造部门的一个员工每月的平均加班时间为14小时。H公司的大多数员工都在制造部。另外该公 ...

晓得了~谢谢~

Fiona09

题干是说：H公司的制造部门的一个员工每月的平均加班时间为14小时。H公司的大多数员工都在制造部。另外该公司每位员工每个月的平均加班时间波动不大。所以每个月，H公司的大部分员工基本上都要加班。

E项说：忽视了这种可能——有些月份加班有些月份不加。但这与题干事——每月平均加班波动不大，相悖

而D项说： 忽视了这种可能——某部门成员有一定加班，而此部门很多人根本没有加班的情况。也就是说，制造部门的平均加班时间可能是一小部分人给加出来的，所以完全可以用来质疑结论。