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Argument 78 题目：
The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food distribution company with food storage warehouses in several cities.
"Recently, we signed a contract with the Fly-Away Pest Control Company to provide pest control services at our fast-food warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest Control Company, which we have used for many years, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only $10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, our best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff for all our pest control services."
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Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
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提纲：
1. Fly-Away 的损失和Buzzoff的损失可能没有可比性
2. 作者的例子仅仅是一个月的统计结果，这个月可能是异常的，数据没有代表性
3. A的价格比B的价格低多少？要是差价超过$10,000的话选择A更好
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时间 33 字数 496
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In this memo, the author suggests the food distribution company to choose Buzzoff Pest Control Company instead of Fly-Away Company. To make his argument reasonable, the author provides evidence that the damage from warehouse serviced by Fly-Away is larger than it of Buzzoff. This reasoning process seems good, but many flaws may weaken the argument, and some specific evidence is neglected by the author.
In the first place, the fact that over $20,000 worth of food in Palm City had been destroyed by pest damage, while only $10,000 worth of food in Wintervale was damaged is not persuasive enough. The author assumes that those two things are comparable. However, there are great chances that externally, food storage in Palm City is much more difficult than Wintervale as a consequence of damper climate which can contribute to the survive of pests, and internally, the quality or kind of food may be not the same. For instance, the fast-food in Palm City may be easy to be destroyed while the food in Wintervale may be added with much conservative that efficiently protect the food from being destroyed. To make the argument more convincing, the author has to provide evidence indicating that at least the two things referred to above is the same.
In addition, the example provided by the author may be not representative enough. As we can see, the statistics provided by the author is just a one-month observation. There is a great probability that the number of pests last month is extremely high, which means that last month is an exceptional month. The author neglects the assertion that the month surveyed is a normal one, and no accidents happen. Furthermore, it is the first month that Fly-Away provides pest control services to our company, after all. There may be a period for Fly-Away to get used to the working pattern of our company.
Finally, granted that the problems I referred above are solved, the author claims that although the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, the company's best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff. This claim isn't persuasive at all, because the author doesn't provide any information about the prices charged by the two companies. Things may be true that Fly-Away's charge is much more than $10,000 lower than it of Buzzoff's. In this way, a loss from the food can be made up by the lower price from service. The author has to provide evidence that the price Fly-Away charged isn't much lower than Buzzoff, and then, a conclusion may be easier to be achieved.
To sum up, the major reasoning progress is seemingly good, but a lack of consideration of some specific situations weakens the argument a lot. To make the argument more robust and more convincing, the author has to provide more evidence that the comparisons the author made is reasonable and sound. Only by this way, a shift from Fly-Away to Buzzoff can be in the incubation period. |
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发表于 2012-5-6 10:17:36
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