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逻辑题求助,感谢!

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楼主
发表于 2015-8-17 22:03:08 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
哪位大侠能帮忙分析一下这道逻辑题,感激不尽!

Jane:        It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this state reported in a survey that they knew someone who had been a victim of a crime.
Laura:But each person surveyed probably knows a hundred people.If only one person out of one hundred acquaintances had been a victim of a crime,even a pretty theft,they would reply in affirmative.Although a zero crime rate is ideal,it is unrealistic to expect the crime rate to be less one percent.
Laura’s argument relies on the assumption that
正确答案是:
Normally,crime vicitms are not found only in a certain areas of the state among certain isolated groups of people.

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沙发
发表于 2015-8-17 23:18:18 | 只看该作者
答案的意思就是J讨论的Survery的样品不是特殊的。

J说:很危险。
L说:100个人里才1个受害者,不多。

J说的是整个state很危险,L说按照这个比例算不危险。如果J给出的样本只是整个State里面某个小局部的采样结果,那么下一个结论说整个state的犯罪率都一定低于1%就是有问题的。如果这个特殊样品群是整个state里面犯罪率最低的那个局部呢?
板凳
 楼主| 发表于 2015-8-18 20:25:16 | 只看该作者
alzn2765 发表于 2015-8-17 23:18
答案的意思就是J讨论的Survery的样品不是特殊的。

J说:很危险。

感谢啦
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