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关于GWD17-11,新的想法,请逻辑高手指点

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楼主
发表于 2008-5-31 15:33:00 | 只看该作者

关于GWD17-11,新的想法,请逻辑高手指点

11. GWD17-Q11:  
Some species of Arctic birds are threatened by recent sharp increases in the population of snow geese, which breed in the Arctic and are displacing birds of less vigorous species.  Although snow geese are a popular quarry for hunters in the southern regions where they winter, the hunting season ends if and when hunting has reduced the population by five percent, according to official estimates.  Clearly, dropping this restriction would allow the other species to recover.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the argument?

 A.      Hunting limits for snow geese were imposed many years ago in response to a sharp decline in the population of snow geese.

B.      It has been many years since the restriction led to the hunting season for snow geese being closed earlier than the scheduled date.

C.      The number of snow geese taken by hunters each year has grown every year for several years.

D.      As their population has increased, snow geese have recolonized wintering grounds that they had not used for several seasons.

E.       In the snow goose’s winter habitats, the goose faces no significant natural predation.


这道题以前讨论过了。参见:

http://forum.chasedream.com/dispbbs.asp?BoardID=24&ID=153635&replyID=&skin=1
http://forum.chasedream.com/dispbbs.asp?BoardID=24&ID=146131&replyID=&skin=1

不过以前的NN们好像都没有分析一点:
B是说,hunting season earlier than scheduled date。scheduled date怎么理解对于这题很关键。

原文中有一句:according to official estimates。也就是说,是否减少了population的5%,是根据提前对于 population的一个估计。比如估计population是100万,那打了5万的时候就停手不打了。


再看B选项,既然已经很多年了,人们肯定知道rescrictions的存在。所以有理由认为这个scheduled date是这么定的,总population×5%得到今年可以打的snow geese的数量,然后根据每天可以打到的数量(这个数量应该是根据经验值得到的),然后订一个date,这就是schedule date了。实际时间比schedule date提前,只能说明猎人每天打到的snow geese比他们预先估计的多,要么是因为猎人NB,要么是因为snow geese数量多。这么分析来看,B是对于文章结论的support。

再看D,因为population的增长,snow geese开辟了新的栖息地。要么导致猎人找不到他们,要么说明他们并没有和the other species 去争夺栖息地从而threaten它们。所以D是weaken。

一点愚见,恳请高手指点!


[此贴子已经被作者于2008-5-31 15:37:04编辑过]
沙发
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-31 16:05:00 | 只看该作者

再仔细想一下,我上面对于scheduled date的解释有点牵强。

不过这不影响对答案的判断。

B说的是,因为restriction的存在,人们提早结束了打猎。那一旦去掉restriction,人们肯定会打到scheduled date,就会多少SG,就support了原文。

板凳
发表于 2008-5-31 19:41:00 | 只看该作者
答案应该是B吧 B的意思是这个限制已经很多年没有起到作用了。所以降低限制也没有用
地板
发表于 2009-7-14 16:25:00 | 只看该作者
除了schedule date的判断,其它的跟我想法完全一样。
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