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请教两道我在XDF培训发的练习

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楼主
发表于 2007-7-16 12:35:00 | 只看该作者

请教两道我在XDF培训发的练习

1.Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis.Although the new screening tests are estimated to disqualify up to 5 percent of all prospective blood donors,they'll still miss two-thirds of donors carrying NABA hepatitis.Therefor,about 10 percent of actual donors will still supply NANB contaminated blood
>
>The argument abouv depends on which of the following assumptions?
>
>A Donors carrying NABA hepatitis donn't in a large percentage of cases,carry other infectionos for which reliable screening tests are
>routinely performed.
>
>B Donors carrying NABA hepatitis do not a large percentage of cases,develop the disease themselves at any point.
>
>C The estimate of the number of donors who would be disqualified by testests for NABA hepatitis in an undertimate.
>
>D The incidence of NABA hepatitis is lower among the potencial donors than it is in the population at large
>
>E The donors who will still supply NABA contaminated blood donate blood at the average frequency for all donors.
>
> 答案选A 解释一下吧
>
>2.A recent survey of all auto accident victims in Dole Couty found that,of the severely injured drivers and front-seat passengers,80 percent were not wearing seat belts at the time of their accidents.This indicates that,by wearing saet belts,drivers and front-seat passengers can greatly reduce their risk of being severely injured if they are in an auto accidents.
>
>The conlusion above is not properly drawn unless which of the following is true?
>
>A Of all the drivers and front-seat passengers int the survey,more
>than 20 percent were wearing seat belts at the time of their accidents.
>
>B Considerably more than 20 percent of drivers and front-seat
>passengers in the Dole County always wear seat belts when traveling by car
>
>C More drivers and front-saet passengers in the survey than rear-seat passengers were very severely injured
>
>D More than half of the drivers and front-seat passengers in the
>survey were not wearing seat belts at the time of their accidents.
>
>E Most of the auto accidents reported ro police in Dole County do not involve any serious injury
>
>答案是A 解释一下
>
沙发
发表于 2007-7-16 15:11:00 | 只看该作者

同问第一题.

第二题我的理解是这样的,通过数学关系来求解.

假设参加调查的人数是100,其中严重受伤的人数是10.

那么严重受伤的人中有8人是在事故发生时未系安全带的,另外2人系了安全带.

答案A说所有参加调查的人中,超过20%的人是系了安全带的,即>20人系了安全带,即<80人没有系安全带

举个极端的例子,假设90个人系了安全带,也就是说90个系安全带的人群里有2人发生了严重事故;那么10个剩下的没系安全带的人群里就有8个发生严重事故.可想而知,系安全带可以减小发生严重事故的风险.

板凳
发表于 2007-7-17 13:18:00 | 只看该作者

第一题,如果带着NANB的Donor还带着其他能被检测出的疾病,那么他们在检测时已经会被排除掉了。这样就其实没有10%的人混过关了。

第二题,理解起来的确比较复杂。受伤的人中有80%不带安全带(即20%带安全带)不能说明问题,只有比较不受伤的人中带安全带的比例是否大于受伤的人中带安全带的比例才能说明问题。A就是这个思路:在总体样本中,多于20%的人是带安全带的,而受伤的人中只有20%的人是带的,那么未受伤的人中必定多于20%的人是带的,这样不受伤的人中带安全带的比例大于受伤的人中的比例,结论成立。

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