费费逻辑 104

That the policy of nuclear deterrence has worked thus far is unquestionable. Since the end of the Second World War, the very fact that there were nuclear armaments in existence has kept major powers from using nuclear weapons, for fear of starting a worldwide nuclear exchange that would make the land of the power initiating it uninhabitable. The proof is that a third world war between superpowers has not happened.

Which one of the following, if true, indicates a flaw in the argument?

(A) Maintaining a high level of nuclear armaments represents a significant drain on a country’s economy.

(B) From what has happened in the past, it is impossible to infer with certainty what will happen in the future, so an accident could still trigger a third world war between superpowers.

(C) Continuing to produce nuclear weapons beyond the minimum needed for deterrence increases the likelihood of a nuclear accident.

(D) The major powers have engaged in many smaller-scale military operations since the end of the Second World War, while refraining from a nuclear confrontation.

(E) It cannot be known whether it was nuclear deterrence that worked, or some other factor, such as a recognition of the economic value of remaining at peace.

答案是e，为什么b不对呢？

文章

第3次世界大战没有爆发可以证明policy是有效的（但其实意思是反过来的，是policy使得世界大战没有爆发，因此这个policy是有效的。）

E：其实未必是policy起的作用。

牛牛能把原文翻译一下吗？还是不明白。。。

自己顶一下~~~

That the policy of nuclear deterrence has worked thus far is unquestionable. Since the end of the Second World War, the very fact that there were nuclear armaments in existence has kept major powers from using nuclear weapons, for fear of starting a worldwide nuclear exchange that would make the land of the power initiating it uninhabitable. The proof is that a third world war between superpowers has not happened.

核威慑的政策已经起了作用这一点是毫无疑问的。自从第二次世界大战，确实群在得核物装备已经使得重要得几支主要得力量（国家或者组织）不去使用核武器，害怕开启世界核物得交易，这样得交易可能会使得几个（开始这个交易得）主要力量的土地不可居住。证据就是，（在几个超级强国间的）第三次世界大战并未发生。

文章的意思是：核威慑的政策是起作用的，证明就是没有第三次世界大战

E：第三次世界大战没有爆发可能有很多的原因。其本身并不能证明这是核威慑的政策的功劳。

十分感谢~~