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大全-4-19,有了解释还不明白

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楼主
发表于 2004-8-18 05:19:00 | 只看该作者

大全-4-19,有了解释还不明白

Surveys show that every year only 10 percent of cigarette smokers switch brands. Yet the manufacturers have been spending an amount equal to 10 percent of their gross receipts on cigarette promotion in magazines. It follows from these figures that inducing cigarette smokers to switch brands did not pay, and that cigarette companies would have been no worse off economically if they had dropped their advertising.



19.   Of the following, the best criticism of the conclusion that inducing cigarette smokers to switch brands did not pay is that the conclusion is based on



(A) computing advertising costs as a percentage of gross receipts, not of overall costs



(B) past patterns of smoking and may not carry over to the future



(C) the assumption that each smoker is loyal to a single brand of cigarettes at any one time



(D) the assumption that each manufacturer produces only one brand of cigarettesE



(E) figures for the cigarette industry as a whole and may not hold for a particular company


这是我找到的前人给的解释,但是还是不直观,总觉得没有彻底弄明白哦,


Choice E gives us a explanation that figures as a whole can not necessarily conclude that such figures will happen on a particular company. It is likely that maybe in company XXX this action does pay.
This is a tricky subject, regard it as a argument writing in AWA.



请大家给我更直观的解释,或是再帮助我分析一下其中的逻辑推理过程,说实话,我好像翻译成中文也不明白,傻啦,请求帮助


沙发
发表于 2004-8-18 17:05:00 | 只看该作者

虽然我的逻辑不灵但还是试着为你翻译以下

这题是说,调查的结果是整个烟草行业平均汇总的结果,而每个公司的情况是不相同的,不能从一个general case推出 一个 special case. 就像我们说今天10个人考试的结果调查出来大概40%上了700 , 那不能说因为你就是这十个人里一个你就怎样怎样.对不?

板凳
 楼主| 发表于 2004-8-19 01:45:00 | 只看该作者

谢谢麻集爱哥哥!

我的推理过程你也帮忙看看,如何:

调查表明:

10%的人要换香烟的牌子,烟草公司要出10%的利润促销,结论:换牌子的人不用付钱。

它的assumption是:这个总体数据不是个体数据

好奇怪为什么换牌子的人不用付钱呢?

地板
 楼主| 发表于 2004-8-19 01:49:00 | 只看该作者

o,我明白了,是因为这个推论是错的,谢谢呀!

自己讲一遍,感觉就出来啦,大家一起讨论呀,收获多多

5#
发表于 2006-1-28 16:35:00 | 只看该作者
以下是引用我笨,我努力在2004-8-19 1:45:00的发言:

谢谢麻集爱哥哥!


我的推理过程你也帮忙看看,如何:


调查表明:


10%的人要换香烟的牌子,烟草公司要出10%的利润促销,结论:换牌子的人不用付钱。


它的assumption是:这个总体数据不是个体数据


好奇怪为什么换牌子的人不用付钱呢?


结论是说 做广告,让人家换牌子,划不来 did not pay

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