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5 The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
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The claim that by limiting the number of rental can contribute to the decrease of accidents seems to be persuasive at first glance.If more attention are paid,however,it's not difficult to find that this argument is full of hypotheses,which make it not firm enough to substantiate that this policy can be effective.
To lower the amount of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians,the author suggests to reduce the permissive number of mopeds rental per day.However,there is no certain relationship between the number of mopeds and of such accidents.There is the possibility that the people living on the Balmer Island are all well educated,which means that either walking or driving a moped,they are cautious enough to avoid bumping.And meanwhile the roads are all in high quality,suitable for driving. Even if reducing the number of mopeds can lower the incidence of accidents,it's still doubtful whether reducing the permissive number of mopeds rental per day can really reduce the amount of the mopeds on the road.We don't know how many percent of people who use mopeds have bought ones?If the majority of moped drivers have their own mopeds,then the plan that by constraining the rental number of mopeds per day to decrease the amount of mopeds on the road becomes pointless. Unless more valid information be provided can we judge whether this suggestion is effective or not.
In addition,even if this advise will be valid,however,when the purpose is to obtain the annual reduction in these kinds of accidents,to what degree can taking this measurement only in summer can help?While there is a increase in the population in summer(and assumes that there is a increase in accidents,too),we still have to question how many accidents take place in the other three seasons?If the sum of the accidents happening in the other three seasons is much larger than in summer,just take action in summer will do little to the annual reduction.In that case,we need more detailed data for a more cogent conclusion.
What's more,the author makes a fallacious analogy between Balmer Island and neighboring island of Seaville,which propose the that the limitation valid in Seaville last year can also be effective in Balmer now.Though these two islands are near ,many intrinsic differences between them should not be overlooked.The traffic management,for example,maybe different between two islands.It's possible that in Seaville,the traffic signals are more adequate,the traffic police more qualified,the roads flatter,which all can help to reduce the accidents.Even if the inherent difference is so little that can almost be omitted,we can't ignore that this policy was effective in Seaville last year.Apparently,this year is not equal to last year.For instance,we have to ask what events happened last year in Seaville?How about this year? We don't know,and we can assume that there were no grand events took place last year,this year,however,there is a nationwide football match going to be held on the island,which will cause millions of tourists to come.In that case,the policy may fail to reach its original goal.Unless we can know more about these two islands,it's not proper to make a conclusion upon this inadequate information.
In sum,based on the message only in this letter,it's difficult to draw a cogent conclusion that this policy of limitation can contribute to decrease these kinds of accidents.That is,more information is needed to reach a final decision whether this policy of limiting the number of mopeds rental can reduce the amount of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians.
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发表于 2012-4-19 08:35:21
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