此题推理应抓住题干叙述，不能应用概率乘法法则去理解

chenxuleon · 发表于 2010-11-2 22:29:18

Moreover, thecurrent season, spring, is the time of year in which thundershowers, which sometimes result fromlow-pressure systems, are most likely to occur in Plainville.
春天里的Thunder Rainfall（TR）由两个因素造成：1.Low Pressure(LP)因素；2.非LP因素（即其他因素）.即将来的这场TR是由LP因素造成的。所以选项C是正确的。而选项B不准确，它的percentage数值将会偏高，因为还包含了非LP因素造成的TR。

LeoBX · 发表于 2010-11-2 23:44:33

LZ吧原题贴出来一下啊。。

chenxuleon · 发表于 2010-11-3 11:11:17

我是要回别人的一个帖子，不知道怎么就变成自己开了一个主题了...

chenxuleon · 发表于 2010-11-3 11:20:10

贴上feifei里的原题

70. A low-pressure weather system is approaching Plainville; rainfall results from about 70 percent of such systems in the Plainville area. Moreover, the current season, spring, is the time of year in which thundershowers, which sometimes result from low-pressure systems, are most likely to occur in Plainville.

Knowing which one of the following, in addition to the information above, would be most useful for determine the probability that Plainville will have a thundershower soon?

A.   the percentage of thundershowers in Plainville that occur in the spring
B.   the percentage of spring rainfalls in Plainville that are thundershowers
C.   the percentage of thundershowers in Plainville that result from low-pressure systems
D.   whether low-pressure systems in other areas are associated with rainfall
E.   whether Plainville has more or fewer thundershowers each spring than do near by towns

此题推理应抓住题干叙述，不能应用概率乘法法则去理解

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