16. A recent report determined that although only three percent of drivers on Maryland highways equipped their vehicles with radar detectors, thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them. Clearly, drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not.
The conclusion drawn above depends on which of the following assumptions? (A) Drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are less likely to be ticketed for exceeding the speed limit than are drivers who do not. (B) Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed.
正确的答案是B), 记得曾经有人说过A)错在推翻了原文的PREMISE, 因为原文中明显表明Drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to be ticketed. 个人认为: A)错在没有regularly 这个词, 如果有了, 那么一定也是正确选项. 因为很有可能EQUIP RADAR DETECTOR的DRIVER超速的比例远远大于被捉的33%. 这算是推翻了原文的PREMISE吗?
我的想法如下: 如果把A)取非: Drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are MORE likely to be ticketed for exceeding the speed limit than are drivers who do not.
那么原文的结论: drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to EXCEED the speed limit ... 就不成立了. 因为可能33%是由于他们装了RADAR,所以比较容易被捉到而且被TICKETED. 没有装RADAR的可能超速的超过33%, 但是只有3%的被抓到被TICKETED. 不是说红色的CAR超速普遍容易被捉到吗? 这种分析有什么漏洞? 我发现这方面的确比较弱, 帮我分析一下错误的地方.
论据：3%的车装有雷达，33%被ticketed 的车装有雷达==》结论：装有雷达的的车的人比不装的人更有可能超速 我觉得如果要用取反做题： A ：Drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are not less likely to be ticketed for exceeding the speed limit than are drivers who do not.
B: Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are not more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed.
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发表于 2003-9-29 05:04:00
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