OG 11th-77,请前辈指点！！谢谢！

OG 11th-77,

Roland:The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.

Sharon:But a normal,moderate level of unemployment is 5%,with one out of 20 workers unemployed.So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers,one or two will very likely be unemployment.

77.Sharom's argument relies on the assumption that______

B.unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population.

OG解释Sharons"s generalization must assume that this is the case equally throughout the country and that unemployment is not concentrated in some geographically isolated areas.

1.是不是说，Sharon 的假设是建立在一般化（generalization）的基础上，失业率在全国是平均分部的。如果在某区失业率集中的话，（即该区是特别的不具代表性），此假设就没有意义。请纠正我说的对么? 请NN指教！！~谢谢 ！

2.如何直接得到B答案呢？

若由5%得到one out of 20 workers unemployed,和approximately 50 workers,one or two will very likely be unemployment.那么自然想到其是按照概率算的,而这种理想化的分布又与现实,因为一般来讲,E.G.贫民区的失业率要富人区失业率高.而在这种情况下题目中的one or two will very likely be unemployment.自然就与地域分布关联起来.  这样算是直接得到B答案.

提醒LZ,捷径有时更误事.OG解释看懂养成良好思维模式才会考场直接得到B答案概率更大.

谢谢SHJDHKBB9的指点！

同意您的观点，OG解释看懂，养成良好的习惯，才会更受益。