确认一道CR JJ的答案

Background information:  This year, each film submitted to the Barbizon Film Festival was submitted in one of ten categories.  For each category, there was a panel that decided which submitted films to accept.

Fact 1:  Within each category, the rate of acceptance for domestic films was the same as that for foreign films.  

Fact 2:  The overall rate of acceptance of domestic films was significantly higher than that of foreign films.

In light of the background information, which of the following, if true, can account for fact 1 and fact 2 both being true of the submissions to this year’s Barbizon Film Festival?  

1. In each category, the selection panel was composed of filmmakers, and some selection panels included no foreign filmmakers.

2. Significantly more domestic films than foreign films were submitted to the festival.

3. In each of the past three years, the overall acceptance rate was higher for foreign than for domestic films, an outcome that had upset some domestic filmmakers.

4. The number of films to be selected in each category was predetermined, but in no category was it required that the acceptance rate of foreign films should equal that of domestic films.

5. Most foreign films, unlike most domestic films, were submitted in categories with high prestige, but with correspondingly low rates of acceptance.
   

是否选B?

同意选b,条件1）说比例相同，但是如果 domestic films基数大的话，总比值也大。lz 把e 制成红色的是什么意思啊？答案给的是E?

我是直接从别人的JJ copy过来的.她将E标注为红色,似乎表示选E.我觉得有疑问,所以征求大家的意见.

choose E, you can imagine that most foreign films apply to only one panel

我试一下,请NN指正

Background information:  This year, each film submitted to the Barbizon Film Festival was submitted in one of ten categories.  For each category, there was a panel that decided which submitted films to accept.

背景信息：今年，每一个提交到BFF的电影分到10个类别中的一个。每一个类别，有一个小组决定哪一个被选送的电影可以决定

Fact 1:  Within each category, the rate of acceptance for domestic films was the same as that for foreign films.  

F1: 在每一个类别中，接受本地电影的比率和接受外国电影的比率相同

Fact 2:  The overall rate of acceptance of domestic films was significantly higher than that of foreign films.

F2:接受的本地电影的总比率明显高于外国电影的总比率

In light of the background information, which of the following, if true, can account for fact 1 and fact 2 both being true of the submissions to this year’s Barbizon Film Festival?  

哪一个如果是真的，能够解释 F1 &F2 都是真的？

b.本地电影的数量明显多于外国电影。

e.Most foreign films, unlike most domestic films, were submitted in categories with high prestige, but with correspondingly low rates of acceptance.
大多数外国电影，不像本地电影，被提交的时候质量较高。因而接受率相对低。

我还是觉得b 更好。是不是我那里理解的不对阿？

觉得还是选E..

因为即使B的事实是对的,根据Fact1和2, 也不能够推出结论. 也就是说,更多不代表被选中的几率更大.

而E直接影响外国电影了被选中的几率

琢磨了半天,好象是这样的,看看对不对:

This year, each film submitted to the Barbizon Film Festival was submitted in one of ten categories.这里的each film既有本土的也有国外的films.假设共有２００，各１００部．再假设只有A,B两个目录，A的接受率是２０％，Ｂ是１０％．当国外的有９０部submitted to B,而本土的却有９０部submitted to A时，便会造成F1和F2共存．Right?

but option B seems reasonable too, what's wrong? I don't know how to refute B. 

I suddenly can't input Chinese. Don't know why. Faint...

Can you help illustrate that "也就是说,更多不代表被选中的几率更大." by an example with data? Many thanks.

well, like....

因为Fact 1, 他们在每一组的的acceptance rate是一样的. 也就是说,其实对于每一部电影来说, 总体的acceptance rate 是一样的, 不论对方是外国电影还是中国电影. 但是Fact2显示的却是, foreing ones 的acceptance rate相对较低,也就是说demonstic的相对较高.

为什么在Fact1的情况下会产生Fact2呢?

如果只是如B所说, Demonstic的更多, 根据Fact1, 其实是无法推出Fact2的, 也就是如果B, 不会让Demonstic的选中几率更高.

但是如果E, 那么相对来说在一个组别里面,Foreign ones竞争力更大, 导致了相对的选中率较低.才会出现Fact2...

汗,,,好复杂...

如果要变成Numbers, 根据Fact 1, 每一组的acceptance rate假设都是10%, 那么总体的也应该是10%

所以, 如果选B, 即使有100部Demestic上缴, 10部foreign上缴, 最终两者的acceptance rate仍然全是10%.

如果选E, 那么50部Foreign都上缴给几个比较具有名望的电影, 假设这些电影的因为名望较大,所以被选中的几率都在90%>10%(不论他们在那一组),从概率的角度来讲,跟他同一组的电影被选中的几率自然就<10%了.... 这些Foreign选择了这样的组, 那么相对他们的acceptance rate就降低了, 也就是组内竞争力更大了...

汗...我不知道怎么才能说明白啊...==