难题--紧急求助!!!请各位高手帮忙指点!

Can anyone help me undertand the following question:

When people predict that a certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Which of the following, if ture, best supports the claims above?
A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action

B)Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.

C)Learning whether a ceratin predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result of using that strategy through several trials.

D)Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective actin from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.  (X)

E)Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction

I was really confused by the implication of this passage!!!!!!!!!!!!

Could XDJM enlight me on this question????????? Pls!

支持c,c说要知道某种设想的假设（策略）是不是正确（有效）的，需要将该策略反复试验几次，这和题干的意思是吻合的。

thanks MM,  但我觉得C 也有些问题, 原题说--预测 Result->Action, then continue to say that 他们认为预测准确是根据 ACTION->RESULT, this is obviously a logical flaw, now matter how many times they conduct the trial, as long as they use above reasoning, there would not be correct answer.......

For D) the only thing that I don't like is the 'effective' and 'ineffective' which were not mentioned on the passage, otherwise I am ok with D

I am open to discussion...

James GG:

the answer given by New Oriential is D but I don't think D is correct in that it use some new words(effective , ineffective) that is not supported by original passage

原文的意思大概说”事事无绝对”

我选C.其中的through several trials 和原文的the result admits of more than one interpretation.对应

做这类题,不对ETS的路子.但对阅读有好处

D)Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective actin from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.

即：通常无法确定，prediction 和 actin之间的联系

很清楚地支持结论， it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

即:结果（预计）常常有不止一个原因（行动）