第一篇argu AAA10，写的有点长～估计很多语法错误吧，忐忑～～

A10. The following appeared in a memo from the vice president in charge of fundraising at laceName w:st="on">WaymarshlaceName> laceType w:st="on">UniversitylaceType>:

“Three years ago, as part of a very successful campaign to increase the amount of money donated for scholarships, laceName w:st="on">SophialaceName> laceName w:st="on">CollegelaceName> used student volunteers to telephone selected alumni and request contributions. That year the total amount of money donated to Sophia exceeded its annual goal by 150%. To reduce overhead costs for fundraising and increase contributions, laceName w:st="on">WaymarshlaceName> University should begin using student volunteers to make telephone requests in all our fundraising efforts. Furthermore, since the enrollment at Waymarsh University is more than twice that at Sophia College, we should be able to raise at least as much money each year as Sophia did by using this same method.”

In this argument the author reach the conclusion that Waymash University should use the same way that Sophia College used three years ago to raise the funds. The basis for this recommendation is that Sophia College apply the student volunteers to raise the funds successfully.An additional reason given in support of this recommendation is that the number of the Waymarsh University students is more than twice the Sophia College students.At first glance, the auther's argument appears to be somewhat convincing ,but further reflection reveals that it omits some important concerns that should be addressed to substantiate the agrument.

In the first place,the author commits a fallacy of causal oversimplification. The line of the reasoning is that because the Sophia College used student volunteers to contact some alumni to collect the patronage.And the perfect of the patronage is absolutely attributed to the applicantion of the volunteers by the author.But just because the volunteers measure is used before the excellent result,the causal judgement is somewhat imprudent.No additional evidence linking the two events is offered in the argument, thus leaving open the possibility that the two events are not causally related but merely correlated. This is turn leaves open the possibility that factors other than the one cited are responsible for the success of raising the funds, such as the engagement of the new famous professors, some good projects attracting patronage, outstanding graduates winning prestige of the school and the improvement of the management et al.

In the second place, given the excellent fund raising is indeed due to the students volenteers of Sophia College,the argument rests on the assumption that Sophia College is ananlogous to Waymarsh University in all respects.This assumption is weak,since although there are points of comparison between Sophia College and Waymash University, there is much dissimilarity as well.For example,the backgroud of Sophia College may be eminence,and the govenment is willing to patronize Sophia College,however, Waymash University is just a private university,although the number of the students in Waymash University is more.Thus, it is likely much more difficult for Waymash University to make much fundraising by using the volunteers .

In the third place, the author commits the fallacy of "all things are equal". The fact that happened three years ago is not a sound evidence to draw a conclusion that Waymash University can use the same way to carry its points three years later.The author assumes without justification that the background conditions have remained the same at different locations.However, it is not clear in this argument whether the current conditions at the vision about patronage in common are the same as they used to be three years ago.Thus it is impossible to gain the conclusion.

Last but not the least, that the more students are the guaranty for the more patronage is somewhat absurd.

In conclusion , the author fails to provide adequate justification for the conclusion.As is stands, the reasoning does not constitute a logical argument in favor of the recommendation.To strengthen the argument,the author must at least show that the successful fundraising of Sophia college is due to the students volenteers, that all aspects between Sophia College and Waymash University are the same,that it is effective that the method three years ago used now, and that the number of the students is assurence of the fundraising.