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最近以来世界经济遭受很大的变动.其中最obvious but the least understood的就是名目经济.虽然传统理论认为symbol Economy (trade, flow of capital, exchange rate等等)受国内的实质经济(the flow of service and goods)影响,但是好像某一段时期后的观察发现事实不太是如此.
The third major change that has occurred in the world economy is the emergence of the “symbol" economy—capital movements, exchange rates and credit flows—as the flywheel of the world economy, in place of the “real” economy—the flow of goods and services. The two economies seem to be operating increasingly independently. This is both the most visible and the least understood of the changes.
在某一段时期symbol Economy曾经很夸张的成长.举例,当全球的flow of goods and services总值到3 trillion时,伦敦的证交所的trade值就有75 trillion了.但后来的期间虽然实质经济有成长,但名目经济却和以前相比没有太大变动.
World trade in goods is larger, much larger, than it has ever been before. And so is the “invisible trade,” the trade in services. Together, the two amount to around $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion a year. But the London Eurodollar market, in which the world’s financial institutions borrow from and lend to each other, turns over $300 billion each working day, or $75 trillion a year, a volume at least 25 times that of world trade.”
In addition, there are the foreign exchange transactions in the world’s main money centers, in which one currency is traded against another. These run around $150 billion a day, or about $35 trillion a year—12 times the worldwide trade in goods and services.
Of course, many of these Eurodollars, yen and Swiss francs are just being moved from one pocket to another and may be counted more than once. A massive discrepancy still exists, and there is only one conclusion: capital movements unconnected to trade—and indeed largely independent of it—greatly exceed trade finance.
There is no one explanation for this explosion of international—or more accurately, transnational—money flows. The shift from fixed to floating exchange rates in 1971 may have given an initial impetus (though, ironically, it was meant to do the exact opposite) by inviting currency speculation. The surge in liquid funds flowing to petroleum producers after the two oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 was surely a major factor.
But there can be little doubt that the U.S. government deficit also plays a big role. The American budget has become a financial “black hole," sucking in liquid funds from all over the world, making the United States the world‘s major debtor country.” Indeed, it can be argued that it is the budget deficit that underlies the American trade and payments deficit. A trade and payments deficit is, in effect, a loan from the seller of goods and services to the buyer, that is, to the United States. Without it Washington could not finance its budget deficit, at
least not without the risk of explosive inflation.
Neither符号经济符合凯因斯的model,就是国内经济会影响trade再举例,最近的实证发现,(D4下考逻辑,请注意各自的贸易与就业关系,我的可能有点小差异)美国在一段时间虽然有很多的trade deficit,但其unemployment rate却低于几个major 工业国.然后美国的失业率又比德国低,虽然德国有trade surplus.然后日本和德国一样在export有很大的成长,但是其国内经济却持续疲软,也没有创造多的国内工作(有题,如果日本符合理论的话,下列何者为对)
The way major countries have learned to use the international economy to avoid tackling disagreeable domestic problems is unprecedented: the United States has used high interest rates to attract foreign capital and avoid confronting its domestic deficit; the Japanese have pushed exports to maintain employment despite a sluggish domestic economy. This politicization of the international economy is surely also a factor in the extreme volatility and instability of capital flows and exchange rates.
Whichever of these causes is judged the most important, together they have produced a basic change: in the world economy of today, the “real" economy of goods and services and the “symbol” economy of money, credit and capital are no longer bound tightly to each other; they are, indeed, moving further and further apart.
Traditional international economic theory is still neoclassical, holding that trade in goods and services determines international capital flows and foreign exchange rates. Capital flows and foreign exchange rates since the Irst half of the 1970s have, however, moved quite independently of foreign trade, and indeed (e.g., in the rise of the dollar in 1984-85) have run counter to it.
结论,细节不清楚了,大意是最近这些变化显现国内经济和实际上是比较independent的。有一句比较记忆深刻：Although the U.S has trade deficit, its unemployment rate is below other countries except Japan. Surprisingly, German 有trade surplus，但unemployment rate很高。Japan 的trade surplus跟German一样，也是很高，但 suffer from sluggish economy and could not generate more job opportunity。
But the world economy also does not fit the Keynesian mode] in which the “symbol" economy determines the “real” economy. The relationship between the turbulences in the world economy and the various domestic economies has become quite obscure. Despite its unprecedented trade deficit, the United States has had no deflation and has barely been able to keep inflation in check; it also has the lowest unemployment rate of any major industrial country except Japan, lower than that of West Germany, whose exports of manufactured goods and trade surpluses have been growing as fast as those of Japan. Conversely, despite the exponential growth of Japanese exports and an unprecedented Japanese trade surplus, the Japanese domestic economy is not booming but has remained remarkably sluggish and is not generating any new jobs.
Economists assume that the “real" economy and the “symbol” economy will come together again. They do disagree, however—and quite sharply—as to whether they will do so in a “soft landing” or in a head-on collision.
The ”soft-landing" scenario—the Reagan Administration is committed to it, as are the governments of most of the other developed countries—expects the US. government deficit and the US. trade deficit to go down together until both attain surplus, or at least balance, sometime in the early 19905. Presumably both capital flows and exchange rates will then stabilize, with production and employment high and inflation low In major developed countries.
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发表于 2018-8-10 20:55:20
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