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OG16 17题求讲解

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发表于 2015-10-25 14:56:10 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
看了OG解释还是不明白,求大牛解释,不胜感激:

The Maxilux car company's design for its new luxury model, the Max 100, included a special design for the tires that was intended to complement for model's image. the winning bid for supplying these tires was submitted by Rubuco, Analysts concluded that the bid would only just cover Rubco's costs on the tires, but Rubco executives claim that winning the bid will actually make a profit for the company.
which of the following,if true, most strongly justifies the claim made by Rubco's executives?
A. In any Maxilux model, the spare tire is exactly the same make and model as the tires that are mounted on the wheels.
B. Rubco holds exclusive contracts to supply Maxilus with the tires for a number of other models made by Maxilux.
C. The production facilities for the Max 100 and those for the tires to be supplied by Rubco are located very near each other.'
D. When people who have purchased a carefully designed luxury automobile need to replace a worn part of it, they almost invariably replace it with a part of exactly the same make and type.
E. When Maxilus awarded the tire contract to Rubco, the only criterion on which Rubco's bid was clearly ahead of its competitors' bids was price

正确答案是D, 但为什么B 不对呢?求解释~~
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沙发
发表于 2015-10-26 00:35:58 | 只看该作者
每天限答两题,恭喜中奖。

从问题分类是加强类,从Helr分类是统计枚举类。

前提(因):the bid would only just cover Rubco's costs on the tires
结论(果):Rubco executives claim that winning the bid will actually make a profit for the company

明显前提和结论之间现在无法建立因果关系,有一个明显的gap: 为什么刚刚够收回成本的标价可以盈利呢?
D给出了这个gap:谁说是一锤子买卖了?卖给生产厂商成本价这轮胎是为了占坑用的,这样等车主更换轮胎的时候,我们就可以赚这些车主的钱了(工厂给生产商的报价车主是不可能知道的)。
举例:想想电信公司傻吗?为啥合约机比手机市场售价便宜那么多?

这题出的挺好,用了心理学的“潜意识植入”手法。在前提和结论中,只有前提提出了bidding这么一个讨论范围,结论并没有给profit的讨论范围(也就是profit是不是一定是bidding contract的profit是不一定的)。这样我们在读完题之后,自己在潜意识里就给自己定下了“讨论范围就是bidding contract这么一个范围”。可事实上,结论中profit的讨论范围不只是bidding contract这么一个小范围,而是车全寿命轮胎总profit这么一个更大的范围。前提和结论中讨论范围被扩大了,这就是统计枚举类。

当然,所有的统计枚举类其实都是质疑假设类:质疑“the perimeter of discussion is limited to that in the premise”。

B错在只要bidding contract里面规定提供给生产商的轮胎价格是刚刚够成本的,不管Rubco拿到几个这样的 exclusive contracts,Rubco都不赚钱。事实上,现实世界中这种活雷锋式的供应商一定是不存在的,做买卖不赚钱我玩蛋呢?生产商恨不得这种SB供应商多一些。
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