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Argument 166 题目：
The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. This shows that eating a substantial amount of fish can clearly prevent colds. Furthermore, since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, attendance levels will improve. Therefore, we recommend the daily use of a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
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时间 35 字数 475
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The author of this memo recommended that the lower absenteeism of West Meria can be achieved by daily using a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil. To support this conclusion, the author says that fishes are widely eaten in East Meria and people there are less likely be get colds. Therefore, supplement derived from fish oil can prevent colds in West Meria and lead to a lower absenteeism. The reasoning process seems sound, but many questions stem from this memo, which may weaken the recommendation of the author.
In the first place, the author says that people in East Meria rarely visit a doctor for treatment of colds. But do few visits for a doctor sufficiently indicate a less likelihood of getting colds? Many people getting cold may not visit a doctor but just rest at home or take some medicine at home. In this memo, the author doesn't provide any evidence proving that virtually all of the patients getting cold will see a doctor, which makes the argument less persuasive. To solve this problem, the author has to show us something about the connection of getting colds with seeing doctors.
Additionally, the author asserts that a declining of colds will contribute to lower absenteeism. However, why less colds will decline absenteeism? Isn't there other factors will lead to absenteeism in schools and workplaces? There is a probability that most people playing truants in West Meria derives from other emergencies such as externally a visit of a friend from remote cities, or internally their unwilling to work or study at school, who will make up many other reasonable excuses for their absenteeism. The author has to consider such problems confronting his conclusion; otherwise, suggestions like that can never be reasonable.
Finally, if the questions above can be soundly answered by the author and reasoning process above is less faulty, the author's claim that a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil will prevent colds and reduce absenteeism in West Meria. This claim isn't convincing, because he can't provide evidence presenting that the fewer colds in East Meria stems from their consumptions of fishes only, and he cannot prove that it is the substance from fish oil that make people less tendency of getting colds. Unless the author can convincingly prove that a daily use of nutritional supplements from fish oil in West Meria equals consuming of fishes in East Meria, the suggestion can be proved by us tenuous.
To sum up, many flaws are in the recommendation made by the author, and the reasoning process is so poor in this argument. Some questions can be asked by others. If these questions cannot be answered properly by the author, the conclusion will not convince us and the using of the supplements will proved absurd and the absenteeism will not be reduced by this way. |
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发表于 2012-5-2 16:41:20
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